The past few weeks have seen several outcomes that have no doubt increased the committee’s already high stress level in picking the best four teams in all the land. With Mississippi State and Michigan State both going down recently, and teams such as TCU, Ohio State, and Baylor continuing on winning paths, the drama is sure to come to a head after the upcoming regular season finales and conference playoff games.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide: 11-1 (7-1 SEC)
National Championship Odds: 8/5
The Crimson Tide have proven themselves over and over in the weeks leading up to this Saturday’s SEC title game against Missouri. Alabama managed to dispose of LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn in a tough four week span that provided one cupcake game against Western Carolina. The Crimson Tide proved that they could grind out wins in typical SEC low-scoring defensively dominated affairs with MSU and LSU, while also showing their ability to go score-for-score in their 55-44 victory over Auburn that saw both teams combine for 1,069 yards of offense.
Alabama WR Amari Cooper topped the 200 yard mark against Auburn, which included this wide open 39 yard touchdown pass from quarterback Blake Sims that literally had offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin celebrating before the play was even snapped when he saw Auburn’s pass coverage lined up:
The Crimson Tide seems to be peeking at the right time. Should Alabama get past a very good Missouri team and claim the SEC crown this weekend, they are the obvious lock for the No. 1 spot. The only mystery left is who they will play in the first round.
Why they could fall: Missouri is no easy foe. Shane Ray leads a talented group of defensive ends that will put a lot of pressure on quarterback Blake Sims, who threw for three interceptions against Auburn. Turnovers did Alabama in against Ole Miss, and almost buried them in that game against Auburn. If the Crimson Tide offensive line isn’t up to the task, it could be another mistake filled day for Sims and his wide receivers.
2. Oregon Ducks: 11-1 (8-1 Pac-12)
National Championship Odds: 12/5
The Ducks are another team that seems to be peaking at the end of the season. Oregon has beaten their last four opponents by a combined score of 187-72, which included wins over solid bowl-eligible Stanford and Utah teams. The Ducks have no rooting interests in other games, so their only obstacle remaining between now and the playoffs is the No. 7 Arizona Wildcats this Saturday for the Pac-12 title.
Oregon Quarterback Marcus Mariota has had a ridiculous year, all but sealing this years Heisman Trophy for himself. The junior signal caller from Hawaii has thrown for 3,470 yards, 36 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He is also second on the team in rushing with 636 yards and 11 more touchdowns. Mariota has carried the Ducks offense to 4th nationally with 45.9 point per game. The Oregon defense has held up their end of the deal, allowing 23.3 points per game while weathering a high scoring Pac-12 conference, good for 32nd nationally.
Why they could fall: The Ducks should obviously be worried about Arizona. The Wildcats have won the last two meetings against Oregon, including a 31-24 victory in Eugene earlier this season. Arizona’s defense is the only one to hold the Ducks to under 30 points this season, as well as limiting the usually potent Oregon rushing attack to 144 yards. Don’t be surprised if the Wildcats pull out a third straight, clouding the playoff picture even more.
3. Florida State Seminoles: 12-0 (8-0 ACC)
National Championship Odds: 7/1
Someway, somehow, the Seminoles have escaped the 2014 regular season unscathed, despite numerous close calls against both good and inferior teams. Florida State capped their perfect run thus far by sending off Will Muschamp with a 24-19 loss to end his tenure as head coach of the Florida Gators.
As usual, the Seminoles flirted with disaster against the Gators. The result of the matchup in Tallahassee might’ve been a lot different had Seminole linebacker Terrance Smith not been able to snag an interception and return it 94 yards for a touchdown late in the first quarter. Florida was up 9-0 with a first and goal from the seven yard line moments before:
The Seminoles also needed a fourth down stop to seal the win as Florida was driving for the go-ahead touchdown with under two minutes to go in the game. Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston had a career-high four interceptions and threw for just 125 yards, a career-low. Still, the Seminoles were able to do what they’ve done all season: get the win.
No matter how it’s transpired, the Seminoles have won all their games, and that’s still more than what any other playoff contender can say. Despite this, the committee has seemed to penalize them for their game control, opting to place three one-loss teams above them. Florida State could improve their ranking if they can snag that elusive commanding win against No.11 Georgia Tech in this weekend’s ACC title game.
Why they could fall: Florida State has shown that they are beatable on a weekly basis. Georgia Tech hasn’t lost since Oct. 18. The Yellow Jackets are good at forcing turnovers, and if they back the Seminoles into a corner, they can rely on their 4th ranked rushing attack that produces 333.8 yards per game to run out the clock and put an end to the Seminoles playoff hopes.
4. Texas Christian Horned Frogs: 10-1 (7-1 Big 12)
National Championship Odds: 9/2
The Horned Frogs made a surprising jump to No. 3 in this week’s official playoff rankings, largely in part to Mississippi State losing 31-17 to Ole Miss, and also partly due to Florida State’s inability to land a commanding win in recent weeks. TCU’s 48-10 victory over a surging Texas team probably helped their case as well. The Horned Frog defense held Texas to 90 yards rushing while forcing an astounding six turnovers. TCU was able to turn five of those turnovers into 24 points.
Horned Frog quarterback Trevone Boykin held his own against a very good Texas defense, going 20-of-34 for 233 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The 38-point win was enough to push TCU’s average margin of victory to 24.2 points per game, the highest out of the four current playoff teams.
TCU has made a habit out of blowing out opponents all season, which is a big reason why they sit where they are currently. There are many however who claim that TCU’s playoff ranking is rather unfair due to being ranked ahead of another one loss Big 12 team that they lost to: the Baylor Bears.
The Bears own the only victory this season over the Horned Frogs, a wild 61-58 shootout back on Oct. 11. TCU also has the disadvantage of playing in a conference that has no title game. The Big 12 has made it clear that they will present Baylor and TCU as co-champions to the committee if both teams finish with one loss. The Horned Frogs final opponent of the season is a 2-9 Iowa State team at home, so that shouldn’t be a problem on their end.
Why they could fall: It’s practically all out of the Horned Frogs hands at this point. While TCU is likely to add Iowa State to their long list of blowout victories, they are still at the mercy of the Committee. Baylor faces No. 9 Kansas State in their final game this Saturday. Should the Bears beat the Wildcats convincingly, and should Ohio State manage to win against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, the committee will have to decide whether style points or head-to-head match-ups matter more. Its anyone’s guess how that will go.
