Week 12 was certainly a wild one that saw many deciding outcomes enter the playoff equation. Alabama capped off their run to the top by knocking off Mississippi State. Florida State survived another scare, as did TCU. Arizona State put an end to their hopes, while Ohio State continued their late push.
With the season winding down, only a handful of regular season matchups and several conference title games remain to change the minds of the Committee for better or worse.
–College Football Playoff Projection Week 13—
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Record: 9-1 (6-1 SEC)
Odds to win: 5/2
The Crimson Tide come barging in to the No. 1 spot after two huge victories in consecutive weeks. Alabama began their run by disposing of LSU 20-13 in an overtime thriller in Baton Rouge that had Tiger fans banging their heads against the wall by the end. They celebrated that win the following week by knocking off then No. 1 Mississippi State at home last Saturday by a score of 25-20.
The Crimson Tide were outgained 428-335 by the Bulldogs, but took advantage of three interceptions from MSU quarterback and Heisman contender Dak Pescott to hang on for the win. Alabama quarterback Blake Sims was 19/31 for 211 yards and one touchdown, avoiding costly mistakes and engineering what was essentially a game clinching touchdown drive in the 4th quarter that was punctuated by a 7 yard touchdown run from running back T.J. Yeldon.
Alabama continues to stifle opposing offenses and is allowing just 14.5 points per game, good for 2nd nationally. The Crimson Tide get a practice game this week against the mighty Catamounts of Western Carolina before their regular season finale at home against a suddenly sliding Auburn team on Nov. 29th.
Why they could fall: Alabama’s last real test before the SEC title game is against Auburn. While it’s true that the Tigers have fallen in recent weeks, they could still pose a threat to the Crimson Tide, and costly turnovers could do Alabama in like they did against Ole Miss earlier in the season.
2. Florida State Seminoles
Record: 10-0 (7-0ACC)
Odds to win: 6/1
Seminole quarterback Jameis Winston did it again. And again. And then he did it again. The Florida State Seminoles have danced with disaster numerous times this season, and each time they have come out victorious. In fact, they are the first team since 2005 to win three times in a season after being down by 15 or more points. Their most recent brush with death came against a stubborn Miami team last Saturday.
The Seminoles found themselves down 16-0 in the first half, yet managed to come back in their usual fashion and edge out a 30-26 win. Florida State looked to be in danger late in the 4th quarter when Miami seemed to be driving down the field for the winning touchdown, but the Seminoles were bailed out when Jalen Ramsey made the game-saving interception of Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya at the 16 yard line with under a minute to play.
Florida State has remained unbeaten to this point, but they haven’t had a dominating victory since Oct. 4th when they bludgeoned Wake Forest 43-3. Because of their many close calls the past month, the Seminoles margin of victory has slipped to 14. 3. Florida State has two regular season matchups remaining against decent Boston College and Florida teams before facing either Duke or Georgia Tech in the ACC title game.
Why they could fall: Obviously, this come-from-behind trend can’t be healthy and probably isn’t sustainable. If the Seminoles dig themselves a hole one more time, the magic could very well run dry and they might not be able to find a way out, even with Winston behind center.
3. Oregon Ducks
Record: 9-1 (6-1 Pac-12)
Odds to win: 15/4
Oregon did the smart thing and took this past weekend off. Heisman favorite Marcus Mariota and company had some extra time to prepare for Pac-12 juggernaut Colorado, who come into this weekend’s matchup sporting a stout 2-8 record. The Ducks should handle the Buffaloes just fine, so maybe they should start scouting their regular season finale opponent. That opponent happens to be the Oregon State Beavers, who shocked then No. 6 Arizona State 35-27 last weekend in Corvallis.
Why they could fall: Besides the aforementioned and suddenly dangerous Oregon State looming, Oregon still has to get past the Pac-12 title game. Everyone but Colorado is ranked in the top 20 in a wide open South division, so it’s hard to say right now who the Ducks will face. Whoever it is, it won’t be an easy task.
4. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Record: 9-1 (5-1 SEC)
Odds to win: 17/2
The Mississippi State Bulldogs ran into the buzzsaw that is Alabama last weekend, ending their short-lived run at the top by a score of 25-20. Fortunately for them, the Playoff Committee still believes in them, awarding them the No.4 spot in this week’s rankings. It’s for good reason. The Bulldogs have taken care of business all year, which included navigating a brutal three game stretch of LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn. Their only slip-up of the season came against the now No. 1 team, on the road, by five points. If you’re going to join the ranks of the other contending one-loss teams still floating around out there, well, that’s the loss you want to have on your resume.
The Bulldogs should get back on track against a subpar Vanderbilt team this weekend, setting them up for a huge game on the road against Ole Miss to close out the season. The Committee has made it clear that they still think Mississippi State is a contender. If they can handle the Rebels, then they should still be in this spot come season’s end.
Why they could fall: Ole Miss is not a given in any sense. The Rebels two losses have come to LSU and Auburn by a combined seven points, and you’d better believe that they’d love nothing more than to spoil their in-state rivals shot at the very playoff spot that they themselves have seemingly lost out on.
