The North Carolina Tar Heels made a big breakthrough last season as a team which finally lived up to its potential after years of failing to do so. The Tar Heels have long been viewed as a program which should be doing a lot better than it has. There’s a lot of talent available in the region the Tar Heels inhabit. It’s a state university with lots of resources. The program had far too many seven- or eight-win seasons in which winnable and important games were lost. Last season, that all changed. The Tar Heels patched up their defense under coordinator Gene Chizik. They didn’t hemorrhage big plays the way they had in the recent past. Quarterback Marquise Williams committed a bunch of turnovers in a season-opening loss, but after that, he learned how to protect the football and give the offense more opportunities to win games. The North Carolina Tar Heels have changed the way the think about themselves, and that should matter a lot in the coming season.
Biggest Team Weakness
The Tar Heels go into the season with an unproven quarterback. They have a lot of proven pieces, but this isn’t one of them. Mitch Trubisky watched Williams play the past few seasons, and how he gets his chance. He’s gotten a small number of reps, but the transition to being an every-down player is daunting. Williams needed multiple seasons to finally put all the pieces together at quarterback. If Trubisky needs the same amount of time, this season is going to be a struggle. It doesn’t really matter for 2016 if Trubisky hits his stride in 2017. North Carolina has made forward strides as a program in so many other ways, but quarterback could be the area where the North Carolina Tar Heels regress this coming season.
Biggest Team Strength
Whereas some teams have the quarterback but not the skill players or the lineman, North Carolina is a team without the QB but with a lot of great offensive linemen. Jon Heck and Caleb Peterson are expected to be lockdown linemen who do not allow very many pressures or tackles for loss. They should enable Trubisky to ease into his position and create minimal disruptions for Carolina’s blocking schemes. Preventing a lot of negative plays should keep Carolina in good down-and-distance situations Trubisky can manage. Running back Elijah Hood is an elite player who should take a lot of pressure off Trubisky and enable UNC to work in a play-action passing game which can exploit linebackers intent on stopping Hood.
Schedule
The North Carolina Tar Heels play the Georgia Bulldogs out of conference, but the real problem is that they have to play non-division foe Florida State in the ACC. That will likely be a loss. However, UNC might still be the best team in a relatively weak ACC Coastal, whose other teams are in various stages of transition. The home game against Pittsburgh and the road game at Miami will loom large. However, other than that, the Tar Heels should have a relatively easy time of things. Their season might look very similar to last year where they lose a big game – like they did to South Carolina – and then rip off a big winning streak. After Florida State, they get Virginia Tech at home before the road trip to Miami, and then they play at Virginia, home to Georgia Tech, at Duke, and home to The Citadel and North Carolina State. If they can beat Miami, they might be able to end the year on a seven-game winning streak.
Outlook
North Carolina won’t be better than last season, but it will remain better than Miami and Pitt. Those are the foremost contenders in the Coastal. UNC will repeat as division champion and again play in the ACC Championship. If they’ve in fact improved (based on last year), then they might have a shot in the Championship game. Last year, they lost 45-37 to Clemson in a game that they really struggled to show that they can compete. However, if the defense is in fact better, maybe they have a better showing in that showdown.
Projection: 1st In ACC Coastal
