The Stanford Cardinal won the Pac-12 again. They won the Rose Bowl again. They continued to show that they deserve to be seen as one of the sport’s foremost teams, and its best team on the West Coast. Oregon is clearly not as strong as it once was. USC still has questions about its head coaching. This is definitely the Pac-12 favorite, but is it a team who can carry the banner of favorite with the decisiveness witnessed in recent seasons? There are a number of reasons to doubt Stanford this year, but then again, everyone was doubting Stanford’s ability to win the Pac-12 after a Week 1 loss to Northwestern last season.
Biggest Team Weakness
The Stanford Cardinal must replace Kevin Hogan at quarterback. Hogan wasn’t always brilliant as a passer, but he could run for big yardage. He was an exceptional athlete who could escape from pressure and, when needed, hit a defender to get tough yards in short-yardage situations. Hogan played quarterback with a linebacker’s mentality. He was also a very strong leader for the Cardinal, and by the time his senior season arrived last year, the longtime starter earned the trust of everyone in the locker room. Stanford’s offense could look ugly on some occasions, but Hogan developed a knack for making all the plays he really needed to make in the team’s biggest games. He leaves the school a multiple Rose Bowl champion and a multiple Pac-12 champion. Even with the technical flaws in his passing game, he made himself into an indispensable player for Stanford. The Cardinal got used to his leadership over the past four years, and now they have to turn to someone else. That “someone” is Keller Chryst, though no one knows how long Chryst will be able to hold onto the top spot. This is a vacuum of leadership, one which has to be addressed by the rest of the Cardinal offense.
Biggest Team Strength
The great piece of fortune for Stanford is that while the quarterback position is weaker than it has been, the running backs and the offensive line are as strong as ever. Hogan did well in part because he knew he didn’t have to do everything by himself. This year, Stanford gets back the runner-up in the 2015 Heisman Trophy voting. Christian McCaffrey should be right in the mix for the award again. He’s very good as a runner, kick returner, and out-of-the-backfield receiver, which equates to a truly great player and a versatile weapon no one else in the nation possesses. McCaffrey, running behind an offensive line anchored by lineman Casey Tucker, should thrive and take a lot of pressure off Stanford’s quarterback or quarterbacks, whoever they turn out to be.
Schedule
The Stanford Cardinal play both USC and UCLA in non-division games. Worse yet, those two matchups will come in the first three weeks of the season. And don’t forget that they open the season against Kansas State. While that’s a winnable game, Kansas State isn’t exactly a cupcake. After UCLA, the Cardinal will go to Washington on a short week and face the No. 14 Huskies. As of right now, that means three straight Top 20 opponents. From there, they come home to Washington State, who could be ranked by that time, and then they go to No. 10 Notre Dame after that. That’s very grueling. The back end of the schedule is easy but they still have to go to Cal and to Oregon.
It’s a very rugged and ruthless schedule, but the Cardinal are more experienced than Oregon and Washington in the Pac-12 North. The division champion might lose twice, but Stanford is still going to be the toughest out in the Pac-12.
Outlook
The Stanford Cardinal won’t make the College Football Playoff simply because there are too many opportunities for losses on the schedule – especially on the road. But it is still the best team in the Pac-12 North. At least, that’s what it looks like on paper. USC is more talented, but Stanford shows up when it has to.
Projection: 1st In Pac-12 North
