The 2015 season for TCU was successful, but it was also littered with injuries. TCU overachieved based on how many defensive players were injured, and how many total games all those injuries cost the TCU Horned Frogs. The wave of injuries forced a lot of younger players down the depth chart to get meaningful experience for this season. That’s the good news. The bad news is that more injuries are remaining part of the picture on defense. It’s a very uncertain season for TCU, just when head coach Gary Patterson hoped his defense could avoid the injury bug and become dominant again.
If they stay healthy, they could be in that range of second-tier Big 12 teams that challenges the Oklahoma Sooners, who are expected to be the top dogs in the conference. If not, TCU will probably finish behind the Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys and possibly even the Baylor Bears in the Big 12 standings.
Biggest Team Weakness
TCU’s biggest weakness other than injuries is its offensive line. Four starters will not return due to graduation. That’s going to create a tough transition for a new line which won’t be able to block for Trevone Boykin, the sensational quarterback who put up a Heisman-level season until getting injured late in the 2015 journey. Blocking for a new quarterback presents its own set of challenges. However, it’s more than that. Boykin was such a good runner and scrambler that he could make plays on his own when the pocket broke down. Boykin often bailed out his own offensive line. Neither one of the two current contenders for the starting quarterback spot, Kenny Hill or Foster Sawyer, can run as well as Boykin. TCU’s offensive line has to be that much more solid in pass protection in order to make the offense work. That’s a big burden to place on relatively new players thrust into a position of huge responsibility.
Biggest Team Strength
The TCU Horned Frogs’ biggest strength is their front seven. Linebackers Travin Howard (last season’s leading tackler) and Montrel Wilson, a converted safety, are both excellent in the middle layer of the defense. Up front, defensive linemen Josh Carraway and James McFarland are two of the best bookend pass rushers in the Big 12, and arguably the whole country.
Within this strength, however, lies a basic weakness: Howard at linebacker and McFarland on the defensive line have both been battling injuries. They might be ready for the start of the season, but it is already a point of discouragement for TCU that its frontline defensive starters could miss practices and games, and will probably have to be used carefully (not on every snap) during the whole of the regular season. TCU might have to walk the same tightrope it walked last year.
Schedule
The TCU schedule is a simple one because the Big 12 has all of its teams play each other. The 10 teams in the league all play a nine-game schedule, so TCU won’t duck anyone (or get a big break). TCU hosts Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but must visit Baylor and West Virginia. That works much better in their favor as Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are supposed to be much better than Baylor and West Virginia.
The Sooners game is currently the most important game on the schedule for the TCU Horned Frogs right now. We know that the Sooners are hard to beat in Norman, but are usually vulnerable outside of it, so look for the TCU Horned Frogs to have a real shot at impacting the race in the Big 12.
Outlook
There are simply too many questions about Kenny Hill at quarterback, and too many injury-based uncertainties on defense, to pick this team to make a New Year’s Six bowl game or win the Big 12. And there is also the concerns along the offensive line.
While it’s true that a lot of young players got into the action last year and that this team is probably further along in its development had that not happened, but chances are that this team goes 9-3 in the regular season and makes a second-level bowl.
Projection: 3rd In Big 12
