College Football Quick Picks Week 15 – A rundown of lines and predictions from some of Saturday’s other games.
SMU @ Connecticut – Line: Connecticut (-12) O/U- 43 – This game is interesting solely because of how bad both teams are. This is like the anti-national championship. What’s at stake? Well, either sole possession or a two-way tie for worst team in the formidable American Athletic Conference.
In one corner, you have the mighty Mustangs of Southern Methodist University. SMU comes in 0-11, and ranking near the bottom of every offensive and defensive category. Impressive. The Mustangs are allowing an average of 43.3 points per game, and score an average of 9.6 points per game. That’s right, about three field goals per game. In the other corner you have the Huskies of Connecticut. The 2-9 Huskies allow 30.1 points per game, and score just 15.1. The do have a conference win however. Over whom you ask? Oh, just the Hail Mary kings themselves, recently crowned 2014 American Athletic Conference Co-Champion UCF. Makes sense right? Based on that anomaly alone, the Huskies should cover, sending the Mustangs back to Texas to figure out where in the world to go from here. Pick: Connecticut (-12) OVER 43[divider]
Iowa State @ TCU – Line: TCU (-34.5) O/U- 69 – This game means nothing and everything. Iowa State has limped through another pitiful season, and now they get the honor of closing out the season as TCU’s final blowout victim before the Playoff Committee makes their decisions on the top four teams. The Horned Frogs currently rank 3rd, and with all the controversy surrounding them about being ranked ahead of Baylor, they will no doubt be out to steamroll the lowly Cyclones, thus adding to their already impressive 24.2 margin of victory.
Looking at the résumés of TCU vs Baylor. Which team should be ahead in #CFBPlayoff rankings? pic.twitter.com/r8HgUw8ALr
— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) diciembre 6, 2014
TCU quarterback Trevoyne Boykin should have his way with the Iowa State secondary, and will likely stay in the game until the end, pouring it on as much as possible. The Cyclones have no ground game, so they will look to their inconsistent quarterback Sam Richardson to get things going offensively. The Horned Frogs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games, but can they really cover the line of 34.5? In this case, that’s probably too much. Besides, the Cyclones have put up a decent fight in several games this season, which included dropping 45 points on Texas in a loss. They also somehow beat Iowa early in the season too, so there’s that. Pick: Iowa State (+34.5) OVER 69[divider]
Temple @ Tulane – Line: Temple (-2.5) O/U- 44 – Ah, another marquee American Athletic Conference match-up. Tulane limps in at a measly 3-8 and looking to close out their season with a win at home. The Green Wave have struggled to put points on the board all season (17.2 points per game,) and freshman quarterback Tanner Lee has struggled to throw more touchdowns than interceptions (12 touchdowns and 14 interceptions).
The fact that Temple’s defense ranks 11th nationally with 18.8 points allowed per game doesn’t bode well for Tulane either. The Owls are hoping to get that elusive sixth win to become bowl eligible, and will likely have to rely on their defense to do so, as their offense is nothing to write home about as well, managing just 24.3 points per contest. Temple hasn’t won a game since their inexplicable upset over East Carolina on Nov. 1st, but they are more than likely to get one here. The spread is a little small in this one. Pick: Temple (-2.5) UNDER 44[divider]
Houston @ Cincinnati – Line: Cincinnati (-7) O/U- 56.5 – Well look at that, more AAC drama. This game however, actually involves an interesting match-up of two winning teams. The Houston Cougars are a far different team from when Case Keenum was dropping bombs while Kevin Sumlin gave the orders from the sideline. Once known for revered offenses, Houston is now more of a defensive-minded team.
The Cougars rank 9th nationally with 17.8 points allowed per game. Their inconsistent 5-2 conference record contains both the only conference win over co-champion Memphis and a loss to doormat Tulane. The 8-3 Cincinnati Bearcats have relied on the arm of appropriately-named quarterback Gunner Kiel all year. The sophomore has thrown for an impressive 2,820 yards and 28 touchdowns so far on the season. The Bearcats can hold their own in the ground game as well, and the fairly balanced attack has resulted in them averaging 35.2 points per game.
Obviously, something has to give in this matchup. The Bearcats have been the more consistent team this season, and have shown the propensity to win both shootouts and defensively dominated games. Look for Cincinnati to cover, ensuring their share of 1/3rd of the AAC conference title. Pick: Cincinnati (-7) UNDER 56.5[divider]
Louisiana Tech vs. Marshall – Line: Marshall (-9.5) O/U- 68 – Marshall had everyone’s hopes up of finishing the season undefeated, but just had to go and lose a 67-66 overtime shootout to Western Kentucky last week. It’s fairly easy to pigeonhole those yearly random small-conference success stories as being strictly offensively minded (Marshall does rank 2nd in the country with 46.7 points per game), but the Thundering Herd actually rank 22nd nationally in points allowed, even after that debacle. Certainly, they forgot about their defensive prowess last weekend.
Marshall gets a chance to right the ship before the bowl season with this Saturday’s Conference-USA title game against Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are a pretty good team; they themselves dispatched of that very same Western Kentucky team 59-10 on Nov. 1st. Louisiana Tech might not have the flashiest offensive stats yardage-wise, but they still manage to put up an average of 38.8 points per game.
All that to say, Marshall has been nearly unstoppable this season. Aside from one exception, when they win, they win big. Plan on the Thundering Herd pulling away in the 2nd half over the Bulldogs, and also plan on them making a Power Five conference team look silly in the following bowl game. Pick: Marshall: (-9.5) OVER 68[divider]
Fresno State vs. Boise State – Line: Boise State (-22.5) O/U- 69 – Yes, you are seeing this correctly, a conference title game that has a 22.5 point favorite. How can this be? Well, because the Mountain West’s West division stinks, and also because Boise State is pretty darn good. Fresno State is 6-6 overall on the year, but their 5-3 conference record was enough to give them another shot at taking down the Broncos, whom they lost to 37-27 on Oct. 17th. The Bulldogs have actually allowed more points this season than they’ve scored, but have somehow still managed to win half their games. Quarterback Brian Burrell and running back Marteze Waller have combined for 3,513 yards and 35 touchdowns on the year to lead a balanced Fresno State offensive attack. Boise State began the season with a respectable loss to Ole Miss, but has easily handled the rest of their competition, with the exception of a loss to Air Force on Sept. 27th. The Broncos are averaging 40.8 points per game while holding opponents to 27.6. There is no reason not to think that Boise State will light up the scoreboard against the Bulldogs lackluster defense. The Broncos may have won by 10 points a few months ago, but they have certainly kicked into a higher gear heading into the final stretch of the season. Boise State is primed for a statement win to get into a New Years bowl. Pick: Boise State (-22.5) OVER 69
