The college football season moves to Week 3. A number of ranked teams play relatively easy games at home, so it is hard to put them on upset alert. There are some other examples of games in which the ranked team is not favored to win (No. 25 UCLA at Memphis), and there are some other games between two ranked teams in which it would be hard to call one example an upset (No. 23 Tennessee vs. No. 24 Florida). What follows are the four games in which ranked teams are favored but have a realistic chance of losing if they let down their guard.
No. 20 TCU vs. SMU
College Football Odds: TCU -19
The Horned Frogs are 19-point favorites, but they had trouble with SMU at home – not last year, but two years ago. In 2015, TCU won 11 games and had Trevone Boykin at quarterback, but SMU was within one score of the Horned Frogs in the fourth quarter before TCU pulled away late to win. SMU scored 54 points in Week 2 against North Texas. The Mustangs have a highly potent offense, and TCU just finished a game in which it wasn’t severely challenged by Arkansas’ offense. TCU could get caught in a game where it is not prepared for a more sophisticated passing attack after Arkansas stumbled through a plodding, slow-paced game. SMU represents a different challenge which could catch TCU off balance. SMU is an underdog with nothing to lose and could play with more energy. TCU has to send a message that it will make everything difficult for SMU. If the Horned Frogs can get on top of this game early, they should be fine, but if SMU storms to a quick 10-point lead and creates a game which is close after three quarters, TCU could panic.
No. 12 LSU at Mississippi State
College Football Odds: LSU -7
The Tigers have more talent. They have NFL specimens at linebacker and on the defensive line, such as Arden Key. They have more speed and muscle than Mississippi State… but will they win? LSU is a solid touchdown favorite, but it has not yet been challenged by an opposing offense. BYU did not cross the 50-yard line against LSU, and last week, the Tigers easily subdued Chattanooga. This week, dual-threat quarterback Nick Fitzgerald will force LSU’s defense to make a lot more pressure-packed decisions and quick reactions. LSU can’t play the pass alone, because Fitzgerald is capable of breaking off a long run. LSU has to be ready for anything, but if Fitzgerald plays great, the Tigers might not remain unbeaten.
No. 19 Stanford at San Diego State
College Football Odds: Stanford -9.5
The Cardinal are nine-point favorites on the road in San Diego. They are not playing a conference game, but they badly need this win after getting hammered by USC in Week 2. Stanford should be able to establish physical superiority at the line of scrimmage, but the Cardinal have struggled in the passing game. If they can’t make a reasonable number of passing plays, San Diego State can load up the tackle box and limit the Cardinal’s ground game. That’s the big worry for Stanford heading into this game.
No. 9 Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh
College Football Odds: Oklahoma State -13
The Cowboys are 13-point favorites. They should be able to win this game, but there is a chance that the contest can spin sideways. Pittsburgh very nearly won in Oklahoma State’s ballyard last season, so there is a level of familiarity between the teams which can give Pittsburgh the ability to game-plan properly for OSU. The game is in Pittsburgh, and it is an early kickoff – Oklahoma State players might not be sharp at an earlier time of day. Also keep in mind that Oklahoma State has a contest against No. 20 TCU scheduled next week, which they might look ahead to. There are particularities in this game which could catch Oklahoma State off guard if the Cowboys aren’t mentally prepared. This could be a dog fight.
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