The Colorado State Rams (+14) are set to pay a visit to the Air Force Falcons (-14) at Falcon Stadium. CBS Sports Network is scheduled to televise the action and this MWC game gets going at 3:30 p.m. ET. These teams met last year with the final outcome being a 45-28 victory for Air Force.
Colorado State Rams vs. Air Force Falcons Betting Preview
In this Thursday Mountain West game, Air Force has been projected as the big favorite and the team’s currently giving up 14 points. The Rams are also receiving +500 moneyline odds while the Falcons are -735. If one school can create a bunch of points early it’ll produce a reasonable in-game betting scenario. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 58.5 points.
The game’s O/U has shifted higher after originally being set at 57.5. The opening spread of -14 has stayed consistent.
The disappointing Rams are 4-7 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 11.8 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 4-7. The Falcons are down 3.8 units this season. The team is 6-4-1 ATS and owns an O/U record of 6-4.
The Rams have gone 3-8 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against conference opponents. The Falcons are 4-7 SU overall and are also 2-5 SU in conference play.
The Rams are most-recently reeling from a 29-24 defeat to Utah State last week in which Collin Hill completed 24 passes for 296 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Izzy Matthews (100 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) led the running attack while Olabisi Johnson (seven receptions, 107 yards) and Preston Williams (six catches, 77 yards, two TDs) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
One week ago, Wyoming knocked off this Air Force team by a score of 35-27. The Falcons defense allowed the Cowboys to rush for 111 yards on 29 attempts, including three rush TDs. Tyree Mayfield had a productive showing, recording 112 yards on four catches for Wyoming. For Air Force, Donald Hammond III completed five-of-nine passes for 53 yards and two interceptions. Kadin Remsberg (128 rushing yards on 20 attempts) and the signal-caller Hammond III (90 yards on 18 carries, two TDs) led the running game as Marcus Bennett (three receptions, 31 yards) and Joseph Saucier (one catch, eight yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Colorado State has run the ball on 43.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Air Force has an overall rush percentage of 81.0 percent. The Rams have run for 109 yards/game (including 122 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have eight touchdowns on the ground this year. The Falcons are putting up 274 rushing yards per game (298 in conference) and have 31 total rush TDs.
If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then the Falcons might hold an edge in terms of RB effectiveness. Their backfield has generated 4.7 yards per carry while the defense has allowed 3.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Rams have rushed for 3.3 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 5.2 to opponents.
The Rams offensive scheme has averaged 299 yards through the air overall (317 per game versus conference opposition) and has 23 passing TDs so far. The Falcons have produced 136 pass yards per outing (137.6 in the MWC) and have nine total pass scores.
Defensively, Colorado State has let opponents run for an average of 204 yards and pass for 246 yards per game. The Air Force D has allowed 232.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 121.7 yards per game on the ground. The Falcons are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 8.37 to opposing QBs, while the Rams have allowed a staggering 9.47 ANY/A.
Offensively, Hill has amassed 917 passing yards on the year, and has completed 60 percent of his 139 attempts with four scores through the air and five interceptions. He has a 5.01 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.44 over the last two outings.
Izzy Matthews (629 rushing yards, four rush TDs, 159 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown this season), Preston Williams (1,028 receiving yards, 10 receiving TDs) and Olabisi Johnson (708 receiving yards, four TDs) have all played significant roles of late.
Donald Hammond III has connected on 25-of-50 passes for 397 yards, two TDs and two INTs for Air Force. His ANY/A sits at 6.94 for the year and 9.87 over his last two games.
We also expect the Air Force offense to spread things out this Thursday. As a trio, Kadin Remsberg, Donald Hammond III and Marcus Bennett have combined to account for 538 total yards and four touchdowns the last two games.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Tip: Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons
SU Winner – Air Force, ATS Winner – Air Force, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes
The O/U for Colorado State’s last game going into it was 66.5. The under cashed in the team’s 29-24 loss to Utah State.
Colorado State has averaged 3.0 yards per rush attempt over its last three games and 3.5 over its last two.
Air Force has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.4 over its last two.
The Air Force offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while Colorado State has lost six.
In its last three games, Colorado State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Air Force’s previous matchup was set at 43. The over cashed in the team’s 35-27 loss to Wyoming.
Over its last three contests, Air Force is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Falcons have made 12 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Rams have produced 16 such plays.
The Colorado State defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Air Force has given up 11 such plays.
The Colorado State offense has created seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Air Force has created 18 such runs.
The Rams defense has allowed 19 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Falcons have given up 14 such runs.
The Air Force defense has tallied 17 sacks on the year while Colorado State has 15.
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