The New Mexico Lobos return back to University Stadium to defend their home turf against the Colorado State Rams in a Mountain West showdown on Friday. The game is scheduled to start on Friday, October 20th at 10:15 p.m. EST and can be viewed on ESPN3.com for your late evening entertainment. As of now, line setters have the Rams as a -7.5 point favorite and the contest’s total 59.5.
The Colorado State Rams come into this grudge match after a close 44-42 victory over the Nevada Wolfpack at home. In that battle, the Rams used their high-powered offense to outscore the surging Wolfpack. Now, Colorado State is on the heels of a three-game winning streak coming into New Mexico on Friday.
Conversely, the New Mexico Lobos found themselves on the road at Fresno State. It was a game that New Mexico would like to forget. The Bulldogs brought out the whopping stick and laid a 38-0 beatdown on the Lobos. The Lobo’s 16th ranked rushing attack barely went over the century mark and their offense failed to record 400 total yards. As a result, the loss dropped New Mexico back to .500 on the season.
Colorado State Rams (5-2)
The Colorado State Rams are really kicking themselves for the opening day loss to what now seems like an average Colorado Buffalo squad. If they could have won that game, they would now be 6-1 with their lone defeat coming at the hands of the mighty Crimson Tide. A strong offense has been the key to their success and that all starts with quarterback Nick Stevens.
Last Saturday, Nick Stevens was at it again. The talented signal-caller consistently burned the Wolfpack’s defense throughout the day. He completed 70 percent of his throws for almost 400 yards with four touchdowns and no picks. Over the three-game winning streak, Stevens has thrown for 10 scores while not turning the ball over once. So far, the senior has completed 162 passes for 2,260 yards with 18 touchdowns and only six interceptions.
The Rams are a passing team but don’t think they can’t run the ball effectively. The backfield ranks 35th in the country, tallying just under 200 yards a game. Leading the way for Colorado State are tailbacks Daylon Dawkins and Izzy Mathews. Together, the two have combined for over 1,100 yards on the ground with nine trips to the back of the end zone. Dawkins leads the Rams with 684 yards on 106 carries. Mathews leads the unit with five touchdowns and also has another 419 yards to his credit.
Colorado State lays claim to the nation’s number one receiver in yardage. Outstanding playmaker Micheal Gallup has been sensational, catching 59 passes for 953 yards (1st) and five touchdowns. He also is a senior and has a great relationship with quarterback Nick Stevens. As a one-two punch, Gallup and Stevens make up one of the best tandems in Division I ball. Teammate Detrich Clark handles the other side, catching 27 passes for 355 yards and another four scores.
The Rams defense was porous in the victory over the Wolfpack last week. As a whole, they surrendered 564 total yards which included 508 passing yards. Overall, their defense has been solid this season with the exception of the play of their secondary. The back half ranks 124th in the nation, allowing almost 300 yards a contest.
New Mexico Lobos (3-3)
The New Mexico Lobos have been all over the board in 2017. Recently, they fought their way back over the .500 mark, only to give it back in their worst performance of the season last week against Fresno State. Obviously, repeated injuries to their starting quarterback Lamar Jordan hasn’t helped with the consistency.
Bob Davies’ Lobos are a running team. Quarterback Lamar Jordan has been the anchor for their rushing attack for the last two campaigns. Unfortunately, the shifty kid under-center has been bitten by the injury bug and it has cost the Lobos in two of their losses.
Overall, Jordan has participated in roughly three full games in 2017. In those affairs, he has thrown the ball for 487 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. More importantly, he has run the ball for well over 450 yards in those match-ups. He is not listed on the injury report and I expect him to play against the Rams on Friday.
In Lamar Jordan’s absence, running backs Richard McQuarley and Tyrone Owens have done their best to keep the chains moving down the field. Combined, the duo has rumbled for almost 600 yards and seven trips to glory. Two other tailbacks have also pitched in for another 366 yards and three scores.
Wideouts don’t get a whole lot of attention when the Lobos turn to their running game for the majority of their time on the field. A few receivers have caught 10 or 12 balls but nothing to write home to mom about. Basically, they are asked to consistently block on the edge and create when it’s time for the play-action pass to be used as a weapon.
Defensively, I wouldn’t call the Lobos bad but then again I would call them good either. In total, they allow 376 yards a game. That stat is not bad, ranking them 59th in the FBS. Like the Rams, it is their secondary that struggles the most. The back half has yielded 233 yards a game which is 89th in the country. That has to be concerning with wide receiver Michael Gallup heading into town on Friday.
Prediction
The Rams have been set as a 7.5 point favorite on the road in this one and I can see why. Colorado State is riding a three-game winning streak and has beaten the Lobos in eight of their last 10 contests. In fact, the Rams have won the last seven meetings between the two schools. They have the healthier quarterback and are way more balanced than New Mexico.
For whatever reason, the Lobos seem to play a whole lot better in the confines of their own stadium. The offense certainly has produced twice as much at home than when they have gone on the road. Lamar Jordan is supposed to be suited up and ready to roll for this one, so that is a huge plus for the Lobos.
Considering the above information, I’m going to suggest to my followers that the over 60.5 is the play to throw down in this Mountain West battle. Yes, I think the Rams are a better ball club but the hook with the seven points on the road is enough for me to back off. Instead, rely on the Lobos to find ways to score at home. Also, Colorado State to should find plenty of success through the air against a weak Lobo’s secondary. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Rams are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
The Rams are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games.
The Over is 5-1 in the Rams last 6 conference games.
The Lobos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.
The Lobos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
The Under is 6-1 in the Lobos last 7 games overall.
Home team is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
