It’s a Mountain West Conference match-up when the Colorado State Rams travel to Merlin Olsen Field to lock horns with the Utah State Aggies this weekend. The in-conference showdown is scheduled to begin on Saturday, October 7th at 4:30 p.m. EST. The exhilarating duel can be viewed on ATSN for your viewing entertainment. As of now, the Rams are a -7.5 point favorite and game’s total is at 64.
The Colorado State Rams dominated the Hawaii Rainbows 51-21 on the Big Island last weekend. Once again, the Rams potent offense took charge and led them to 51 points. Colorado State was up 31-7 by half-time and coasted the rest of the way.
The Utah State Aggies defended their home turf last weekend against in-state rivals the BYU Cougars. In that match-up, the Aggies forced an amazing seven turnovers that spearheaded their way to victory. Now, their defense will be asked once again to defend their house against Colorado State.
Colorado State Rams (3-2)
The Colorado State Rams may be struggling on the defensive side of the football but that just isn’t the case with their offense. Only the Colorado Buffaloes have been able to reign them in in 2017. Even the mighty Crimson Tide played them almost to a stalemate for three quarters.
Quarterback Nick Stevens leads the Ram’s 16th ranked passing attack. Last week, Stevens was perfect, tossing for over 350 yards with four touchdowns and not a pick to be found. That performance is pretty typical of how the senior has played all season long. Overall, the captain has completed 61 percent of his passes for almost 1,600 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Running backs Daylon Dawkins and Izzy Mathews make up a great one-two punch when the Rams look to their running game to get things going. Together, the two talented runners have amassed 667 yards rushing with six trips to pay-dirt. Both have three touchdowns apiece but Dawkins leads the Rams with 372 yards. Let me also remind you that both of these backs catch passes too. Combined, both Mathews and Dawkins have 17 catches for almost 200 yards and two more scores.
There is little doubt in Fort Collins who the number one receiver is on campus. Michael Gallup clearly leads the Rams with 39 catches on the year. What stands out to me is that he has translated those catches into 600 yards of offense. He also has two scores to add to his resume’. Teammate Detrich Clark isn’t too bad either, catching 18 balls for 263 yards and a team-high four touchdowns.
Defensively is where the Colorado State Rams need to desperately improve. Even though they trampled the Rainbows last week, they still surrendered over 500 yards of total offense. In 2017, Colorado State ranks 114th against the pass, giving up 278 yards per game. If the Rams seriously want to take a stab at the Mountain West title, their secondary has to stop the bleeding.
Utah State Aggies (3-2)
This is a big Mountain West Conference match-up and the Aggies are full of confidence coming into the game. Their topsy-turvy season has definitely had its ups and downs. First, they got clubbed by Wisconsin, then the Aggies rebounded by scoring 50 plus points against Idaho State. Next, they went on the road and got clubbed by Wake Forest, only to return to the west and put up 61 in their win against San Jose State. Go figure. Last week, they dispatched of their nemesis the BYU Cougars.
So, we know the Aggies can beat the bad teams and can’t handle the heat when the big boys take the field. Either way, quarterback Kent Myers could have a chance to improve on some suspect numbers against a weak Colorado State secondary. In three games, Myers has completed 92 passes for 952 yards with six touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Running backs Eltoro Allen and LaJuan Hunt team up together to move the football via the ground. Both backs have just over 50 carries and both have a little under 220 yards. Together, the two have reached the back of the end zone on three different occasions. Actually, quarterback Kent Myers is second on the team with 217 yards and easily leads them with five scores with his feet.
Four different wideouts get the same looks when the Aggies toss the ball around on Saturdays. Together, they have combined for 59 catches for over 700 yards and seven touchdowns. Ron’Quavion Tarver is the most productive of the four, catching 25 balls for 236 yards and three scores.
Contrastly, the Aggies secondary is their strength compared to their front seven. Unlike the Rams, Utah State is in the top half of the FBS rankings against the pass. Currently, their back half sits 37th in the country, allowing 194 yards per game. The problem with the Aggies defense is their front half. The run-stop unit has faltered, allowing over 191 yards per game (99th).
Prediction
Both of these schools are coming off impressive performances and should be at their best when they face-off this weekend. What really stands out to me is that the Aggies have really struggled against their Power Five opponents. Yes, the Rams were also beaten by theirs but one was a rivalry game to start the season and the other was in Tuscaloosa against the number one Crimson Tide.
Odds gurus have Colorado State as a -7.5 favorite and there is something about that line that scares the hell out of me. Maybe its because the Aggies are so good at getting opposing offenses to turn the ball over. I’ve just got a gut feeling that this one could be closer than that because the Rams defense has underachieved all season long.
Line setters also have this game’s total at 64. This is exactly where I’m going to suggest you make your play. In my opinion, both of these offenses are going to find plenty of ways to put points up in this contest.
Colorado State is balanced and can move the ball in either facet of the game. That always bodes well when you’re slated as a road favorite. Utah State may not be as explosive but can certainly find ways to score against the struggling defense out of Fort Collins. Forget the line play here and place your cash on the over 64. Both teams are good enough to keep this close and will find ways to hit this over in the fourth quarter. #monneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Rams are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
The Over is 5-1 in the Rams last 6 road games.
The Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
The Aggies are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
The Over is 4-1 in the Aggies last 5 home games.
The Rams are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
