Two of the top teams in the nation meet in the Lone Star State when the (7) USC Trojans battle the (5) Ohio State Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl Classic. The game is scheduled to begin on Friday, December 29th at 8:30 p.m. EST. The 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic can be viewed on ESPN to wrap up a great day of college football. Odds gurus have the Buckeyes as a -7.5 point favorite and the contest’s over/under at 65.
The USC Trojans march into the House that Jerry Built sporting an impressive 11-2 overall record and 8-1 in the Pac-12 Conference. They also are hot, winning their last five games in a row. In their last victory, the Trojans laid claim to the Pac-12 title when they beat in-state rivals the Stanford Cardinal, 31-28. Even with the win, USC fell short of a chance to play in the College Football Playoffs.
Ohio State was also left on the outside looking in after they defeated Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship. Apparently, losses to Iowa and Oklahoma were just too much for the committee to overlook and Alabama got the nod. When all the dust settled, the Buckeyes finished with an 11-2 record and went 8-1 in the mighty Big Ten.
The USC Trojans have a 13-9-1 advantage in the all-time series between the teams. They also have won seven-straight meetings, including an 18-15 road win on September 12, 2009. This will be the first time these two programs have squared-off in the Cotton Bowl Classic.
(7) USC Trojans (11-2)
The USC Trojans are above average on the offensive side of the ball, ranking 24th in the FBS with 34.5 points per game. They are led by their sophomore quarterback Sam Darnold who through the ball for 3,787 yards with 26 touchdowns and 12 picks. Protecting the ball was an issue for Darnold in 2017 but he appears to have righted the ship over the course of the last four games. He will need to play mistake-free ball if USC hopes to upset the Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl Classic.
Even though the hype surrounded the quarterback position, the running game was the bread and butter for the Trojans. Electrifying tailback Ronald Jones kept the offense balanced and racked up plenty of yardage along the way. Overall, Jones took 242 handoffs for 1,486 yards and an impressive 18 trips to the promised land. Teammate Stephen Carr also pitched in with almost 400 yards and three more scores.
Basically, three wide receivers did most of the heavy-lifting when the Trojans looked to move the ball through the air. The trio did pretty well, reeling in 166 balls for just over 2,200 yards and 15 touchdowns. Playmaker Deontay Burnett was tops on the team with 74 catches for 975 yards and nine touchdowns. Tyler Vaughns was second with 51 grabs for 690 more yards and five scores of his own.
The USC Trojans defense was the thorn in their side for all of 2017. Even though the offense produced well, the defense gave a lot of it back. Still, they did manage to finish 62nd in the nation, allowing 26 points per game. The secondary is vulnerable, surrendering almost 247 yards a contest (98th). The front seven was average, holding schools to 159 yards on the ground (57th).
(5) Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2)
Ohio State knocked Wisconsin out of the College Football Playoff but they couldn’t crack the playoff field as Alabama sealed the last spot. Their 5th-ranked scoring offense will have the Trojans in At&T Stadium instead of the Clemson Tigers. Leading the potent offensive attack is quarterback J.T. Barrett. The senior had another stellar season for head coach Urban Myer, completing 65 percent of his throws for 2,928 yards with an impressive 35 touchdowns with only nine interceptions. The dual-threat player also toted the rock 150 times for 743 yards and 10 more trips to the back of the end zone.
Freshman running back JK Dobbins started fast and finished strong for the Buckeyes this season. He was asked to be the bell cow for Urban Myers offense. Dobbins responded by rushing for 1,364 yards on 181 carries and seven touchdowns. Teammate Mike Weber complimented Dobbins quite nicely, running for another 608 yards and 10 more touchdowns. Combined with J.T. Barrett, Ohio State will bring the nation’s 13-ranked rushing attack into the Cotton Bowl Classic.
J.T. Barrett spread the ball around to a lot of different wideouts in 2017. Leading the way in receptions was wide receiver K.J. Hill. Hill brought in 55 passes for 546 yards and three touchdowns. Parris Cambell also led the unit with 576 yards and he also reached the end zone three times. Johnnie Dixon is the big-play dude, averaging 23.4 yards a catch and also has a squad-high eight touchdowns.
Unlike the USC Trojans, the Buckeyes will have the services of one of the better defenses in the nation. The unit finished their year ranked 8th in the country in total yards allowed (292). The front half was stout, holding schools to only 108 yards on the ground (8th). The secondary wasn’t far behind, limiting opposing quarterbacks to only 183 yards a game (20th). Overall, the Buckeyes only allow 19 points a contest so this is where they have a clear advantage over the Trojans.
Prediction
Line-setters placed the Ohio State Buckeyes as a 6 point favorite and the betting public has pushed that to 7.5. The defensive play of the Buckeyes is why it has moved in that direction. Even so, they still have surrendered some points to some good offenses. Penn State was able to put up 38 on them and Iowa scored a grand total of 55. That is why I believe that the over 65 is the right play for the 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic.
Sam Darnold and Ronald Jones should find a way to score in the high twenties or the low thirties. With that being said, the Trojan defense should give up 30 or more of their own against J.T. Barret and company. Combine the two and you have a better chance of hitting that over than not. As for the spread, well I don’t like it either way. If USC comes out fired up, their offense could lead them to victory. Also, Darnold could serve up two picks and a fumble and they could lose by 17. For that reason, I suggest staying away from this line and just place your greenbacks on the over 65. @EriktheHun
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Trends
The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
The Over is 7-3-1 in the Trojans last 11 Bowl games.
The Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
The Over is 8-2 in the Buckeyes last 10 games overall.
