The Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Colorado Buffaloes finish off their 2016 campaigns in San Antonio, Texas for the Valero Alamo Bowl. The game is slated to start on Thursday, December 29th at 9 p.m. ET and can be viewed on the ESPN Network. As of this article, the Buffaloes are a -3 point favorite and the contest’s total sits at 62.5.
This game is a reunion of sorts when the Cowboys and the Buffaloes play for the first time since 2009. Oklahoma State and Colorado competed in the same league for a lot of years. In fact, they played in the BIG-8 until it ballooned into the BIG-12. Colorado though, has been a member of the PAC-12 since 2011, a move that seemed unsuccessful until this past year.
Oklahoma State (9-3):
Oklahoma State did a great job of coming back from a 2-2 start, which included a disputed loss to Central Michigan. The Cowboys won seven in a row to set up the winner-take-all game with the Oklahoma Sooners. Oklahoma State was one win away from a repeat Sugar Bowl appearance, but fell into defeat to the Sooners in the de facto Big 12 title game.
As its been in Stillwater for a while now, head coach Mike Gundy’s squad is led by the passing game. The quick-strike offense averages 38 points per game, with most of the production coming from passes by quarterback Mason Rudolph. This season, Rudolph has completed 262 passes for 3,777 yards with 25 touchdowns and only four picks.
True freshman tail back Justice Hill has been a factor, hitting the 1,000 yard mark in his first ever college football campaign. Altogether, Hill has dashed for 1,042 yards on 187 carries and found the back of the end zone five times. Bruising runner Chris Carson steps in for short yardage plays and also has 498 yards and eight scores.
Receivers James Washington and Jalen McCleskey have been Mason Rudolph’s go-to guys when he moves the chains via the pass. In 2016, the duo has accumulated 131 passes for almost 2,000 yards and 16 trips to pay-dirt.
Except for defensive standouts Vincent Taylor (DE) and safety Jordan Sterns, this group has been a soft spot for the Cowboys all season long. Oklahoma State ranks 89th nationally in yards per play allowed and 108th in total yards per contest (457 ypg). As a result, the Cowboys give up 28 points a game to opposing programs.
Colorado (10-3):
The Buffaloes have arguably been the biggest surprise of 2016, shockingly winning the PAC-12 South Division before a defeat to #4 Huskies ended a Rose Bowl bid. Head coach Mike MacIntyre has done an outstanding job of rejuvenating this program. The Buffs want to out-muscle opponents with quarterback Sefo Liufau and tail back Phillip Lindsay between the stripes.
This year, Sefo Liufau has been asked to pass and run the rock to keep opposing defenses honest. Overall, the senior has completed over 180 balls for 2,171 yards with 11 touchdowns and six picks. Liufau has also ran the ball 153 times for just under 500 yards and seven more touchdowns.
Running back Phillip Lindsay is the heart and soul of the Colorado offense. They’ve asked the back to carry the ball 230 times for 1,189 yards and 16 trips to the back of the end zone. The multi-dimensional back has also caught 47 balls for 390 yards and another score.
The Buffaloes use three wide outs to move the chains through the air. Their stats almost mirror one another, with each wide out catching well over 40 passes. Furthermore, all three receivers have reached the promised land on numerous occasions. Shay Fields leads the trio with 845 yards and nine touchdowns. Devon Ross has stepped it up as of late, and finished the regular season with a team-high 66 catches.
The strength of the Colorado Buffaloes in 2016 is their defense. The Buffaloes are giving in to only 18.8 points a contest. The buffaloes are especially strong on the back end, ranking third nationally in pass efficiency defense. Corner back Chidobe Awuzie leads a senior-laden secondary that forces opposing quarterbacks to complete passes into tight spaces.
Trends and Notes:
The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Buffaloes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
The Over is 13-6 in the Cowboys last 19 games overall.
The Under is 7-2 in the Buffaloes last 9 games overall.
NFL stars Drew Brees, Tyler Lockett and Teddy Ginn Jr. all have been MVP’s in the Alamo bowl.
The Alamo Bowl has produced eight of the top 20 most-watched bowl games in ESPN history.
Game Prediction:
Colorado is the more complete team, with the defense that can pressure Mason Rudolph and the Oklahoma State attack. The Buffaloes will look to slow down the pace of the contest and turn the Alamo Bowl into a physical game.
Oklahoma State will try to avoid a battle between the tackles, where Mason Rudolph can find time in the pocket and make big plays to his talented receiving corps. Unfortunately, their 91st ranked run defense might keep him on the side lines for too many Buffalo offensive snaps.
Colorado finds a way to turn the Alamo bowl into their style of football game and covers the -3 by games end. Buying this three point spread down to 2.5 is also a great option, and find another game to throw in with it for plus money.
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