The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles enter Week 17 with very different goals. The Cowboys are headed to the playoffs and have already locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They can’t move up or down, which means that they’re likely to be resting players throughout the game. While the coaching staff has stated that everyone we’ll play, beat reporters have been writing that Tony Romo and Mark Sanchez will be playing plenty and a number of the key Cowboys starters will be resting. That’s what the oddsmakers believe, which is why the Eagles are favored in this contest.
Philadelphia is a young team that’s looking to end the season on a high note. Their 3-0 start has been long forgotten but ended the year with back-to-back wins – even if the second is coming against a Cowboys team that isn’t trying – would be an important stepping stone for this young NFL team.
Moneyline: Eagles -220
Handicap/Spread Odds: Eagles -4.5
Total O/U: 43
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 10/30/2016 | PHI 23 – DAL 29 x | DAL -5 | O 44 |
| 11/8/2015 | PHI 33 – DAL 27 x | PHI -3 | O 43.5 |
| 9/20/2015 | DAL 20 – PHI 10 | DAL 7 | U 53.5 |
| 12/14/2014 | DAL 38 – PHI 27 | DAL 3.5 | O 54.5 |
| 11/27/2014 | PHI 33 – DAL 10 | PHI 3 | U 56 |
On The Cowboys Side of the Ball (13-2 Record, 10-4-1 ATS)
The Cowboys romped over Detroit last week, and they have the top seed in the NFC wrapped up. That means they’re probably going to rest players this week, and there are reports that Tony Romo will see his first action of the season, although Mark Sanchez will likely get the majority of the snaps. Ezekiel Elliott probably won’t play the whole game as well, and tackle Tyron Smith has already been ruled out. This game is all about keeping the key players healthy, and the main storyline this weekend will be how much Romo plays.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/26/2016 | DET | W 42-21 | W -6.5 | O 46.5 |
| 12/18/2016 | TB | W 26-20 | L -7 | U 47.5 |
| 12/11/2016 | @NYG | L 7-10 | L -3.5 | U 47 |
| 12/1/2016 | @MIN | W 17-15 | L -3 | U 43.5 |
| 11/24/2016 | WAS | W 31-26 | L -5.5 | O 53 |
On The Eagles Side of the Ball (6-9 Record, 7-8 ATS)
The Eagles snapped a five-game skid with a win over the New York Giants, but the damage was already done. However, the season wasn’t a complete loss as Carson Wentz did show flashes of being a good NFL quarterback and he got some crucial game time. The Eagles do need to fix the defense, which was 18th in yards allowed this season, so that Wentz isn’t under pressure to help the Eagles put 27-28 points a game. As far as injuries go, Jordan Matthews hasn’t practiced all week and needs to on Friday to have a chance to play on Sunday, but at this point, the Eagles shouldn’t bother suiting him up.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/22/2016 | NYG | W 24-19 | W -1.5 | O 42.5 |
| 12/18/2016 | @BAL | L 26-27 | W 5 | O 41 |
| 12/11/2016 | WAS | L 22-27 | L 2 | O 48.5 |
| 12/4/2016 | @CIN | L 14-32 | L 2 | O 42 |
| 11/28/2016 | GB | L 13-27 | L -4 | U 47 |
Quick Analysis
The Cowboys are 10-4-1 ATS this season, going 5-2 ATS away from home and they’re 4-0-1 ATS as an underdog, although that’s usually with a full-strength lineup. The Eagles are 7-8 ATS and 5-2 ATS at home, going 3-3 ATS as a favorite. For over/unders, the Cowboys are 6-9 O/U this season, and the Eagles are 8-6-1 O/U. Head-to-head, the Cowboys are 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five against the Eagles, including a 29-23 overtime win in Dallas in Week 8 in which the Cowboys won and covered.
Prediction
The Cowboys have to be smart about how they rest their players as they also have a week off next week. Expect players like Elliott and Dak Prescott to play the first series or two before handing over the reins to Sanchez and Alfred Morris at running back, and of course, when will Romo play (the television cameras will be firmly on Romo)? The Eagles have more motivation as they’re still trying to figure out what they have for next season, especially with Wentz, who needs all the game time he can get. The Cowboys are the better team, obviously, but their best players aren’t going to be on the field for the majority of the game, and that will give the win to the Eagles, who should cover as well and go into 2017 with a win that would be good for team morale.
Pick: Eagles -4.5
Note: The betting odds are subject to change throughout the week leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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