The Denver Nuggets (22-21) challenge the Dallas Mavericks (15-29) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 16, 2018, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Denver is a 5.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 211 points.
Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
In the Mavericks’ last game, they were beaten by the Los Angeles Lakers, 107-101. Los Angeles won the rebounding battle. The Lakers had more offensive rebounds (11 vs. four), defensive rebounds (48 vs. 35) and total rebounds (59 vs. 39). Dallas’ Yogi Ferrell had a good outing, contributing 11 points and 10 rebounds.
The Nuggets got blown out by the San Antonio Spurs in their last game, 112-80. San Antonio’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Denver. The Spurs had a rate of 0.615 (above their season average of 0.511), while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.392 (below their season average of 0.527). Denver’s Nikola Jokic had a solid game, leading both teams in scoring with 23 points on 8-for-13 shooting.
Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out as two of the NBA’s top rebounding teams face off. The Nuggets are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking second in offensive rebounding percentage at 26.5 percent. Meanwhile, Dallas ranks fourth in the league at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 79.7 percent. Additionally, the Mavericks rank 27th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.171), while the Nuggets rank fourth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.166).
Dallas holds records of 15-29 straight up (SU) and 22-22 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Mavericks games, with 23 unders compared to 20 overs.
Meanwhile, Denver is 22-21 SU and 20-21-2 ATS. Vegas tends to place the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 58.1 percent of their games have finished under the projected point total.
Dennis Smith Jr. has averaged 15.0 points, 5.8 assists and 1.6 steals over the last five games for Dallas.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Nuggets lost 122-105, unable to cover as 2-point underdogs. Will Barton led both teams with 23 points and also recorded eight rebounds and six assists. The game finished with a total of 227 points, which was 18 points above the projected point total of 209 points. Dallas’ effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Denver. The Mavericks had a rate of 0.640 while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.495.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Odds Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Dallas is 11-9 ATS on the road with 10 overs and 10 unders.
At home, Denver is 12-8 ATS with 12 unders and 8 overs.
Dallas is 11-8 when they allow less than 100 points, while Denver is 12-2.
The Mavericks are 10-13 when they reach the century mark, while the Nuggets are 17-12.
Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (14.7) while Dallas ranks last (9.4).
The Mavericks rank second in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.8) while the Nuggets rank 28th (19.3).
Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (48.5) while Dallas ranks 29th (38.7).
The Nuggets rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while the Mavericks rank 26th (45.3).
Denver ranks ninth in fast break points per game (13.4) while Dallas ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (14.4).
The Nuggets rank 15th in steals per game (7.7) while the Mavericks rank 26th (6.7).
Denver ranks 17th in blocks per game (4.6) while Dallas ranks 28th (3.7).
The Mavericks average 32.2 three pointers per game, which ranks fourth in the league. The Nuggets rank 15th in three pointers allowed per game (28.8).
Dallas averages 22.7 assists per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. Denver ranks 24th in assists allowed per game (24.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Mavericks have outscored opponents by an average of 1.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Dallas has been defeated by an average of 2.0 points.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 95.2 points per game (11.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.0 points per game (0.4 above their season average).
