The Denver Nuggets (25-23) take on the Dallas Mavericks (16-33) at Pepsi Center. The game can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 27, 2018.
Denver is a 7-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 208 points.
Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
In the Mavericks’ last contest, they were beaten by the Portland Trail Blazers, 107-93. Portland’s 25.6 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Dallas, who had a mark of 15.4. The Trail Blazers’ mark was above their season average of 23.0, while the Mavericks’ was below the 21.5 mark opponents have averaged against Portland this season. Harrison Barnes led Dallas in scoring with 21 points on 6-for-15 shooting.
The Nuggets beat the New York Knicks in their last game, 130-118. Denver’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over New York. The Nuggets had a rate of 0.688 (above their season average of 0.521), while the Knicks posted a mark of 0.598. With 18 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds, Denver’s Nikola Jokic had a good performance.
Getting to the line could be rare for Dallas in this matchup. The Mavericks currently rank 25th in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.173, while Denver ranks fourth in FTA rate allowed (0.172).
Dallas holds records of 16-33 straight up (SU) and 24-24 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Mavericks games, with 26 unders compared to 21 overs.
Meanwhile, Denver is 25-23 SU and 21-24-3 ATS. Vegas tends to place the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 60.4 percent of their games have gone under the projected point total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Dennis Smith Jr. (19.4 points, 5.2 assists and 1.4 steals) has been fantastic for the Mavericks while Jokic (20.0 points, 12.8 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.2 steals) has contributed greatly to the Nuggets.
The two teams have split their two matchups this season. The Nuggets won the most recent matchup 105-102, but were not able to cover as 6-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 207 points, which was just 4 points below the projected point total of 211 points. Denver had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (33.3 vs. 13.5). Dallas, meanwhile, did a fantastic job of getting and making free throws (18-22; 81.8 percent). Jokic recorded a double-double with 29 points and 18 rebounds.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Odds Pick
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Dallas is 12-10 ATS on the road with 11 overs and 11 unders.
Denver is 13-10-1 ATS at home with 15 unders and 9 overs.
Denver is 12-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Dallas is 12-8.
The Mavericks are 10-15 when they reach the century mark, while the Nuggets are 20-14.
Dallas ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.6) while Denver ranks 29th (19.5).
The Nuggets rank second in second chance points per game (14.5) while the Mavericks rank last (9.6).
Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (48.5) while Dallas ranks 29th (38.7).
The Nuggets rank first in rebounds allowed per game (40.9) while the Mavericks rank 26th (45.4).
Denver averages 13.6 fast break points per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Dallas ranks 27th in fast break points allowed per game (13.8).
The Mavericks rank 10th in steals allowed per game (7.3) while the Nuggets rank 25th (8.5).
Denver ranks 18th in blocks per game (4.6) while Dallas ranks 28th (3.8).
The Mavericks rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (31.9) while the Nuggets rank 13th in three pointers allowed per game (28.6).
Dallas averages 22.3 assists per game, which ranks 17th in the league. Denver ranks 23rd in assists allowed per game (24.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.0, up from 2.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 108.6 points per game (2.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.6 points per game (1.8 above their season average).
