The Dallas Mavericks (7-8) will have their hands full against the NBA’s top scoring defense when they take on the Memphis Grizzlies (10-5) at FedExForum. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, November 19, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Southeast.
Memphis is a 3.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 206 points.
Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies Betting Prediction
The Mavericks come in on a high note after barely hanging on to beat the Golden State Warriors in their last outing, 112-109, as 2-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (221) were over the projected point total of 215.5. The Mavericks had a great free throw rate of 0.256 (above their season average of 0.219) and had a turnover percentage of 9.0 (better than their season average of 15.2). Dallas was lifted by Luka Doncic, who was the team’s high scorer with 24 points on 9-for-20 shooting.
In the Grizzlies’ previous game, they defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves, 100-87, despite being 6.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (187) came in well under the O/U total of 212. The Grizzlies forced 20 turnovers, while the Timberwolves had a free throw rate of 0.165 (below their season average of 0.214). Marc Gasol was the game’s top scorer with 26 points on 8-for-13 shooting from the field.
Second-chance opportunities might be hard to come by for Memphis in this meeting. The Grizzlies rank 29th in offensive rebounding percentage (18.4 percent), while Dallas ranks sixth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.1 percent). It could also be a mistake-prone game for the offense of the Mavericks, which ranks 28th in ball protection (turnover percentage of 16.2 percent). They’ll be going up against the top-notch defense of the Grizzlies, which forces the most turnovers in the league (18.2 percent).
Dallas heads into the contest with records of 7-8 straight up (SU) and 10-5 against the spread (ATS). Of the Mavericks’ 15 games, eight have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Memphis is 10-5 SU and 9-5 ATS. Grizzlies games have typically gone under the O/U total (57.1 percent).
Gasol has averaged 20 points,9.8 rebounds,3.4 assists,1.2 steals,1.2 blocks over the last five games for Memphis.
After the Mavericks won three out of four contests against the Grizzlies last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the most recent game, Dallas won 114-80. The Mavericks made 30 of their 35 free throws (85.7 percent) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.545 vs. 0.399).
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies ATS Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Dallas is 4-3 ATS with 4 overs and 3 unders.
At home, Memphis is 6-1 ATS with 4 overs and 3 unders.
In contests where they hold opponents under 100 points, Dallas is 3-0 and Memphis is 5-2.
The Grizzlies are 8-2 when they score more than 100 points, while the Mavericks are 7-8.
Memphis ranks second in steals allowed per game (6.7) while Dallas ranks 26th (9.6).
The Mavericks rank eighth in three pointers attempted per game (33.5) while the Grizzlies rank 26th (27.6).
Dallas ranks 11th in second chance points per game (14.4) while Memphis ranks 29th (9.5).
The Grizzlies rank second in points off turnovers per game (21.7) while the Mavericks rank 18th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.2).
Dallas ranks 12th in fast break points per game (14.5) while Memphis ranks 26th in fast break points allowed per game (16.5).
The Mavericks rank 17 in rebounds per game (44.8) while the Grizzlies rank last (38.46666666666667).
Dallas ranks 4 in blocks allowed per game (4.533333333333333) while Memphis ranks 6 (4.733333333333333).
The Mavericks allow the 3-fewest points in the paint per game (42.93333333333333) while the Grizzlies rank 4 (43.06666666666667).
Memphis ranks 18 in assists per game (22.866666666666667) while Dallas ranks 19 in assists allowed per game (23.933333333333334).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five games, Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Memphis is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 11.6, up from 1.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Grizzlies have scored an average of 105.6 points per game (2.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 101.2 points per game (0.4 above their season average).
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