The Minnesota Timberwolves (15-11) challenge the Dallas Mavericks (7-19) at Target Center. The game will air on Fox Sports – Southwest at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 10, 2017.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 207 points with Minnesota opening as an 8-point favorite.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Prediction
In the Mavericks’ last game, they were beaten by the Milwaukee Bucks, 109-102. Milwaukee’s 17.9 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Dallas, who had a rate of 10.8. The Bucks’ mark was below their season average of 18.0, while the Mavericks’ was below their season average of 18.2. Wesley Matthews led Dallas in scoring with 29 points on 11-for-15 shooting.
The Timberwolves were victorious over the Los Angeles Clippers in their last outing, 113-107. Minnesota’s 0.195 free throw rate was their largest strength over Los Angeles, who had a rate of 0.091. The Timberwolves’ mark was below their season average of 0.235, while the Clippers’ was below their season average of 0.221. Karl-Anthony Towns was Minnesota’s leading scorer with 21 points on 9-for-14 shooting.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Minnesota currently ranks 24th in possessions per game (98.0) and Dallas is 22nd (98.2). Furthermore, the Mavericks, who rank 24th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.178), will battle against the Timberwolves, who rank third in opponents’ FTA rate (0.166).
Dallas heads into the game with records of 7-19 straight up (SU) and 11-15 against the spread (ATS). It’s tough to find a trend for games including the Mavericks in regards to the O/U total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is 15-11 SU and 11-13-2 ATS. Contrary to Dallas, Timberwolves games have a slight tendency to go over the total (50.0 percent).
Jimmy Butler has averaged 24.2 points, 5.8 assists and 2.0 steals over the last five games for Minnesota.
The Timberwolves have won both games against the Mavericks this season, including a decisive 111-87 victory in their last matchup. Minnesota covered as a 6-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 198 points, which was 13.5 points below the projected point total of 211.5 points. The Timberwolves made 20 of their 23 free throws (87.0 percent) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.542 vs. 0.419). Butler was the game’s top overall scorer with 21 points.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Dallas is 5-6 ATS with 6 unders and 5 overs.
Minnesota is 4-7-1 ATS at home with 6 unders, 5 overs and 1 push.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Dallas is 6-5 and Minnesota is 7-2.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Timberwolves are 14-6 and the Mavericks are 5-8.
Dallas ranks fifth in three pointers attempted per game (32.2) while Minnesota ranks 29th (22.7).
The Timberwolves rank sixth in points in the paint per game (47.2) while the Mavericks rank last (37.5).
Minnesota ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (40.8) while Dallas ranks 27th (46.2).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in second chance points per game (14.4) while the Mavericks rank 25th (9.9).
Minnesota ranks sixth in steals per game (8.7) while Dallas ranks 25th (6.7).
The Timberwolves rank 11th in points off turnovers per game (18.0) while the Mavericks rank 28th (13.8).
Minnesota ranks 22nd in fast break points per game (9.1) while Dallas ranks 27th in fast break points allowed per game (14.2).
The Timberwolves average 22.8 assists per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 14th in assists allowed per game (22.5).
Dallas ranks 27th in blocks per game (3.6) while Minnesota ranks 28th (3.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Minnesota is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Mavericks have outscored opponents by an average of 4.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Dallas has lost by an average of 3.3 points.
During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 108.8 points per game (1.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 104.2 points per game (2.6 below their season average).
