The Oklahoma City Thunder (20-16) meet the Dallas Mavericks (12-25) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 31, 2017, and will air on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma.
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Prediction
The last time the Mavericks played, they topped the New Orleans Pelicans, 128-120. Dallas’ 15.6 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over New Orleans, who had a mark of 9.5. The Mavericks’ mark was below their season average of 17.4, while the Pelicans’ was below their season average of 20.3. Dennis Smith Jr. played a massive role in the victory for Dallas, collecting 21 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists on his way to his zeroth triple-double of the year.
The Thunder lost a close one to the Milwaukee Bucks in their last matchup, 97-95. Milwaukee’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Oklahoma City. The Bucks had a rate of 8.9 (better than their season average of 12.2), while the Thunder posted a mark of 11.6. Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook had a solid performance, leading both teams in scoring with 40 points on 16-for-34 shooting.
Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out as two of the league’s top rebounding teams face off. The Thunder are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking first in offensive rebounding percentage at 27.5 percent. Meanwhile, Dallas ranks fourth in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 79.9 percent. Furthermore, the Mavericks commit the third-fewest errors in the NBA (turnover percentage of 13.0 percent), while the disruptive defense of the Thunder causes the most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 16.5 percent).
Dallas heads into the contest with records of 12-25 straight up (SU) and 18-19 against the spread (ATS). Games including the Mavericks have finished under the total 54.1 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City owns records of 20-16 SU and 13-22-1 ATS. Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Thunder are involved, as 61.1 percent of their games have finished under the total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Dirk Nowitzki (16.6 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.2 blocks) has been great for the Mavericks while Westbrook (28.4 points, 11.2 assists, 8.2 rebounds and 2.4 steals) has made solid contributions to the Thunder.
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Mavericks won the most recent matchup 97-81, covering as 6-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 178 points, which was 27 points below the projected point total of 205 points. Dallas’ 0.593 effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Oklahoma City, who had a rate of 0.444. In the loss, Westbrook had a double-double with 28 points and 12 rebounds.
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Dallas is 9-9 ATS with 10 unders and 8 overs.
At home, Oklahoma City is 8-10-1 ATS with 12 unders and 7 overs.
When allowing less than 100 points, Dallas is 10-8 and Oklahoma City is 13-5.
When reaching the century mark, the Thunder are 17-6 and the Mavericks are 7-10.
Oklahoma City ranks second in points off turnovers per game (19.1) while Dallas ranks last (13.3).
The Thunder rank first in steals per game (9.8) while the Mavericks rank 27th (6.6).
Oklahoma City ranks fourth in second chance points per game (14.3) while Dallas ranks 29th (9.5).
The Thunder average 14.2 fast break points per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Mavericks rank last in fast break points allowed per game (14.7).
Oklahoma City ranks fifth in rebounds allowed per game (41.2) while Dallas ranks 25th (44.9).
The Thunder rank eighth in blocks per game (5.1) while the Mavericks rank 26th (3.8).
Dallas averages 31.8 three pointers per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. Oklahoma City ranks 23rd in three pointers allowed per game (30.4).
The Thunder rank 23rd in points in the paint per game (41.4) while the Mavericks rank 29th (38.4).
Dallas ranks 19th in assists per game (22.1) while Oklahoma City ranks 25th (20.8).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Oklahoma City is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Mavericks have scored an equal number of points as their opponents. On the season, Dallas has lost by an average of 2.5 points.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 110.8 points per game (7.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 103.4 points per game (3.3 above their season average).
