It will be a battle between Southwest Division opponents when the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) welcome the Dallas Mavericks (2-4) to AT&T Center. The game will air on Fox Sports – Southwest at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday, October 29, 2018.
San Antonio opened as a 6.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 216.5 points.
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Free Prediction
The Mavericks were unable to cover as 11-point favorites in their 113-104 loss to the Utah Jazz in their last game. The game’s combined points (217) were under the O/U total of 221.5. Utah’s 0.588 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Dallas, who had a rate of 0.467. The Jazz’s mark was above their season average of 0.529. Dallas’ DeAndre Jordan had a good outing, finishing with 12 points, 19 rebounds and nine assists.
In the Spurs’ last game, they defeated the Los Angeles Lakers, 110-106, despite being 1-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (216) were well under the projected point total of 232.5. The Spurs knocked down 19 of their 24 free throws (79.2 percent) and held the Lakers to an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.9 (below their season average of 21.1). DeMar DeRozan was San Antonio’s leading scorer with 30 points on 14-for-23 shooting.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. San Antonio ranks 30th in possessions per game (97.1) and Dallas is 24th (98.3) dating back to last season. Additionally, the Mavericks rank 23rd in offensive efficiency (104.8), while the Spurs rank fourth in defensive efficiency (104.1).
Although Dallas has a hard time winning games straight up (2-4 SU), they have a respectable record against the spread (3-2). Games featuring the Mavericks tend to go over the total (60.0 percent).
Meanwhile, San Antonio owns records of 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS. Games involving the Spurs also have a tendency to finish over the total (80.0 percent).
The Spurs won three out of four meetings against the Mavericks last season. In the most recent contest, San Antonio won 98-96. The Spurs had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (20.9 vs. 11.1) and had a better free throw rate (0.174 vs. 0.100).
Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs Free Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Spurs, ATS Winner – Spurs, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
In games where they allow less than 100 points, Dallas is 16-13 and San Antonio is 33-11.
When scoring above 100 points, the Spurs are 40-16 and the Mavericks are 20-32.
Dallas ranks third in three pointers attempted per game (33.1) while San Antonio ranks 27th (24.3).
The Spurs rank sixth in blocks per game (5.4) while the Mavericks rank 27th (3.9).
San Antonio ranks ninth in second chance points per game (13.2) while Dallas ranks 28th (10.7).
The Spurs rank 12th in rebounds per game (44.0) while the Mavericks rank 27th (41.4).
Dallas ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.2) while San Antonio ranks 12th (44.0).
The Spurs rank 19th in points off turnovers per game (16.1) while the Mavericks rank 26th (15.0).
San Antonio ranks 23rd in fast break points allowed per game (13.0) while Dallas ranks 27th (14.6).
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