NBA Odds: Mavericks (even)
The Dallas Mavericks (37-20) take on the visiting Charlotte Hornets (22-30) at the American Airlines Center. The game starts at 7:30 pm ET on Sunday, Feb. 22 and will air on SPSO and FSN-SW.
The Mavericks beat the Rockets 111-100 on Friday. With 17 points and 12 rebounds, Al-Farouq Aminu recorded his second double-double this season. The Hornets, meanwhile, are coming off an ugly 106-78 loss to the Pistons on Tuesday. Gerald Henderson had a team-high 17 points.
Over the last five games, Henderson has been on a tear for the Hornets. During that stretch, he has averaged 18.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 three-pointer.
Dallas should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. They rank third in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.4%). Meanwhile, the Hornets force the fifth-fewest turnovers in the league (12.6%). Also, the Hornets commit the fewest errors in the NBA (turnover percentage of 11.4%), while the ball-hawking defense of the Mavericks causes the third-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.9%).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Mavericks won the first game 107-80. Chandler Parsons was a top performer in the victory with 17 points, nine rebounds, six assists, one steal, and four three-pointers.
Oddsmakers have deemed this game an even matchup and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable. The Mavericks enter the game with records of 37-20 Straight Up (SU) and 26-28-3 Against The Spread (ATS). They have gone 18-5 SU and 14-9 ATS against teams from the Eastern Conference. Few teams in the league have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than Dallas, which ranks third at 1.9. If its opponents turn the ball over, Dallas has shown that it knows how to capitalize. They average 19.7 points off turnovers, making them the top team in the league for that category.
On the other side, the Hornets head into the game with records of 25-25-2 ATS and 22-30 SU. In Western Conference games, Charlotte has gone 6-15 SU and 10-11 ATS. The Hornets rarely make the wrong play with the ball. They have the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the league at 1.8.
Following the Mavericks’ latest win over Charlotte, their SU record rises to 8-2 over the Hornets in the last 10 meetings. The teams have an even record ATS, 5-5. Dallas has held the edge in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) three times over the last 10, while Charlotte accomplished this once.
Predictions: SU Winner – DAL, ATS Winner – DAL
Notes
On average, Charlotte puts up 94.3 points per game (ranked 27th), while Dallas allows 101.0 points per game (ranked 23rd).
Charlotte ranks 26th in points per away game with 94.1 points, while Dallas ranks 23rd in points allowed at home with 101.7.
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Mavericks are 18-2 on the season. When the Hornets score fewer than 100, they are a poor 9-24.
Dallas is 19-18 when allowing 100 or more points this season. The Hornets have a winning 13-6 record when they hit the century mark.
The Mavericks have the fourth-best offensive rating in the NBA (108.2). The Hornets are also in the top half of the league based on their defensive rating of 100.3 (ranked sixth).
On average, Dallas has 98.1 possessions per game and scores 1.082 points on each possession. Charlotte has both fewer possessions (96.6) and scores fewer points during those possessions (.976).
Dallas is among the top-ranked teams based on its average effective field goal percentage of 51.9% (ranked fourth in the NBA). Charlotte is a losing 5-12 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Dallas makes an average of 23.0 assists per game (ranked eighth), while Charlotte makes 20.3 assists per game (ranked 25th).
The Dallas Mavericks average 4.8 blocks per game for a rank of 11th. The Charlotte Hornets rank higher (seventh), earning 5.5 blocks each contest.
The Dallas Mavericks rank 16th in offensive rebounding, while the Charlotte Hornets rank sixth in defensive rebounding.
Dallas averages 8.3 steals per game, ranking ninth in the league. Charlotte is a subpar 5-8 when it gives up at least 8 steals.
