The Houston Rockets (41-13) put their seven-game winning streak on the line when they square off against the Dallas Mavericks (18-38) at Toyota Center. The game will air on NBATV at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 11, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 216.5 points with Houston set as a 13-point favorite.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets Betting Prediction
In the Mavericks’ last outing, they beat the Los Angeles Lakers, 130-123. The Mavericks forced 17 turnovers and had a free throw rate of 0.247 (above their season average of 0.171). Dallas received a boost from Harrison Barnes, who put up 21 points and six rebounds.
The Rockets easily got past the Denver Nuggets in their last matchup, 130-104. The Rockets held the Nuggets to an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.9 (below their season average of 26.4) and had a free throw rate of 0.291 (above their season average of 0.237). With 23 points and 25 rebounds, Clint Capela had a good outing for Houston.
Houston could dominate on the offensive side of the ball as their high-octane offense goes up against one of the league’s worst defenses. The Rockets rank second in offensive efficiency, while Dallas ranks 21st in defensive efficiency. Also, the Mavericks rank 30th in offensive rebounding percentage (17.8 percent), while the Rockets rank second in defensive rebounding percentage (81.3 percent).
Dallas comes into the contest with records of 18-38 straight up (SU) and 27-28 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Mavericks have a tendency to finish under the total (56.4 percent).
Meanwhile, Houston owns records of 41-13 SU and 27-26-1 ATS. Rockets games have no tendency in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Dirk Nowitzki (13.4 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.4 steals) has been great for the Mavericks while Capela (14.2 points, 11.0 rebounds and 3.4 blocks) has contributed greatly to the Rockets.
The Rockets have won both games against the Mavericks this season, including a 104-97 victory in their last matchup. Houston covered as a 6.5-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 201 points, which was 15.5 points below the projected point total of 216.5 points. The Rockets’ 8.9 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Mavericks, who had a mark of 12.6. James Harden recorded a double-double with 25 points and 13 assists.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Dallas is 15-12 ATS with 14 unders and 13 overs.
At home, Houston is 11-15-1 ATS with 16 overs and 11 unders.
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Dallas is 13-10 and Houston is 18-2.
When scoring above 100 points, the Rockets are 40-10 and the Mavericks are 12-17.
Dallas ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (40.3) while Houston ranks 27th (47.8).
The Rockets rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.1) while the Mavericks rank 25th (45.1).
Houston ranks seventh in points off turnovers per game (17.7) while Dallas ranks 29th (14.3).
The Rockets rank fourth in steals per game (8.8) while the Mavericks rank 22nd (7.1).
Houston averages 42.6 three pointers per game, which ranks first in the league. Dallas ranks 15th in three pointers allowed per game (29.2).
The Rockets rank 18th in second chance points per game (11.7) while the Mavericks rank last (10.0).
Houston ranks 16th in blocks per game (4.7) while Dallas ranks 27th (3.8).
The Rockets average 11.2 fast break points per game, which ranks 15th in the league. The Mavericks rank 26th in fast break points allowed per game (13.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Houston is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.2, up from 2.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 116.8 points per game (2.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 99.4 points per game (6.4 below their season average).
