The Oklahoma City Thunder (58-28) will be at home when they take on the Dallas Mavericks (43-43) in Game 5 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals. The game starts at 8:00 pm ET on Monday, Apr. 25 and can be seen on FxK, TXA and TNT.
The Thunder come into this game on a high note after defeating the Mavericks 119-108 on Saturday. With 25 points and 15 assists, Russell Westbrook recorded his 58th double-double of the season.
The Thunder enter the game with records of 58-28 Straight Up (SU) and 39-44-3 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 58-28 SU and 39-44-3 ATS against the Western Conference. The Thunder have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 92.7 points during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 110.2 points per game. The Thunder have a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. They are the top-ranked rebounding team in the NBA, averaging 48.6 per game, while the Mavericks rank 21st in the league with 42.7 per game. Transitioning to the Oklahoma City defense, teams have to fight for open shots against the Thunder, who have one of the best opponent field-goal percentages in the league at .438.
Across the court, the Mavericks head into the game with records of 45-39-2 ATS and 43-43 SU. Most recently, Dallas is 7-3 ATS over the last 10 games. During the last 10 games, they averaged 111.3 PPG, above their 101.8 PPG season average.
Oklahoma City won the last meeting this season between these two teams, bringing its SU record to 7-3 over the Mavericks in the last 10 games. Furthermore, the Thunder lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4.
Predictions: SU Winner – OKC
Notes
Dallas ranks 18th in points per game with 101.8, while Oklahoma City ranks 14th in points allowed with an average of 102.4 given up.
Dallas ranks 20th in points per away game with 99.2 points, while Oklahoma City ranks 10th in points allowed at home with 98.7.
In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Dallas Mavericks are a stellar 29-7. In games where they score fewer than 100 points, the Oklahoma City Thunder have an abysmal record of 3-14.
The Dallas Mavericks have a subpar 14-36 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Oklahoma City Thunder are 55-14 when they hit the century mark.
The Mavericks have an offensive rating of 104.9 (ranked 12th), while the Thunder rank 10th for their defensive rating of 103.2.
Oklahoma City has an average field goal percentage of 47.6% (ranked third). Dallas is a subpar 6-22 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
Oklahoma City averages 23.0 three point attempts per game, and Dallas attempts 28.0 per game. In games where the teams have 25 or more three point attempts, the Thunder have a winning 23-12 record while the Mavericks have a 31-30 record.
Oklahoma City has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.49 this season (ranked 24th). Dallas ranks higher with an A/TO of 1.79 (ranked sixth).
The Thunder earn a league-high 48.6 rebounds per game, while the Mavericks rank 21st with 42.7 per game.
Oklahoma City ranks second in defensive rebounding, placing the team near the top of the pack. Dallas, however, ranks 26th in offensive rebounds.
Though Dallas is one of the best in the league in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TOV% of 13.8% (ranked eighth), Oklahoma City has a winning 38-20 record SU when it has a TOV% of 13.8% or greater.
