The Atlanta Hawks (1-2) welcome the Dallas Mavericks (2-1) to State Farm Arena for their home opener. The game will air on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 24, 2018.
Dallas opened as a 1.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 233 points.
Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks Free Prediction
The Mavericks will be looking for a similar outcome after covering the 5-point spread against the Chicago Bulls in their last outing, 115-109. The combined points for the game (224) finished under the projected point total of 229. The Mavericks had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (32.5 vs. 20.0) and had a better turnover percentage (12.8 vs. 17.6). DeAndre Jordan played well for Dallas, putting up 18 points and 16 rebounds.
In the Hawks’ last matchup, they easily got past the Cleveland Cavaliers, 133-111, despite being 8-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (244) finished over the O/U total of 232.5. The Hawks had a better free throw rate (0.153 vs. 0.091) and had a better turnover percentage (10.1 vs. 14.6). Trae Young was the game’s high scorer with 35 points on 13-for-23 shooting.
It will be a showdown of contrasting tempos as the fast-breaking Hawks will look to push the slower-paced Mavericks. Dating back to the 2017-18 season, the Hawks rank eighth in possessions per game while the Mavericks are 23rd. Moreover, the Mavericks rank second in turnover percentage (12.1 percent), while the Hawks rank third in opponents’ turnover percentage (14.6 percent).
The Mavericks are 26-59 straight up (SU) and 45-39-1 against the spread (ATS) since last season. Since last season, games featuring Dallas have gone under the projected point total 56.5 percent of the time.
The Hawks, on the other hand, have records of 25-60 SU and 43-48 ATS since last season. Atlanta’s games have finished under the projected point total 57.1 percent of the time over that same time frame.
The Hawks won both games against the Mavericks last season. In the last game, Atlanta won 112-107. The Hawks made 18 of their 22 free throws (81.8 percent) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (20.7 vs. 17.9).
Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Dallas is 16-13 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Atlanta is 12-4.
The Mavericks are 20-29 when they score over 100 points, while the Hawks are 21-33.
Dallas ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.8) while Atlanta ranks 27th (18.0).
The Mavericks average 33.2 three pointers per game, which ranks third in the league. The Hawks rank 24th in three pointers allowed per game (30.6).
Dallas ranks ninth in steals allowed per game (7.2) while Atlanta ranks 28th (8.7).
The Mavericks rank sixth in blocks allowed per game (4.4) while the Hawks rank 25th (5.5).
Dallas ranks fourth in second chance points allowed per game (11.2) while Atlanta ranks 20th (13.0).
The Mavericks rank 14th in assists per game (22.8) while the Hawks rank last in assists allowed per game (26.0).
Dallas ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.0) while Atlanta ranks 15th (44.5).
The Hawks rank 21st in fast break points per game (10.6) while the Mavericks rank 26th in fast break points allowed per game (14.4).
Atlanta ranks 23rd in rebounds allowed per game (44.3) while Dallas ranks 25th (45.4).
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