The Dallas Mavericks (45-29) and their fifth-ranked offense welcome the Houston Rockets (50-24) and their fifth-ranked defense. Action begins at 8:30 pm ET on Thursday, Apr. 2 and can be seen on ROOT-SW and FSN-SW.
The Mavericks are are hoping for a better outcome after their 104-99 loss to the Pacers on Sunday. Despite the loss, Rajon Rondo earned his 13th double-double this season with 17 points and 10 assists. The Rockets, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after the close 99-96 loss against the Raptors on Monday. James Harden had a team-high 31 points.
This showdown pits one of the league’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses, as Dallas currently ranks fifth in the NBA in offensive efficiency and Houston is fifth in defensive efficiency. It could also be a mistake-prone game for the offense of the Rockets, which ranks 28th in ball security (turnover percentage of 16.1%). They’ll be going up against the disruptive defense of the Mavericks, which forces the third-most turnovers in the NBA (16.0%).
The Rockets lead the season series against the Mavericks two games to one, but fell short in their most recent game, 111-100. Al-Farouq Aminu finished with 17 points and 12 rebounds.
The odds for Dallas and Houston are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is currently unavailable. The Mavericks have gone 45-29 Straight Up (SU) and 31-40-3 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have only managed a record of 2-8 ATS. The Mavericks have no trouble scoring as they rank third in the league in offense with 104.1 points per game. Dallas is one of the league’s top scoring teams off turnovers with an average of 19.4 points per game. Dallas will look to take advantage of the Rockets and their propensity to foul. Houston ranks 28th in the league in fouls, averaging 22.2 per game.
In the other locker room, the Rockets have a record of 43-31 ATS and 50-24 SU. Against fellow division members, Houston has a 6-6 SU and ATS record. Offensively, they average 104.2 points per game on the road, which is fourth in the league. The Rockets rely heavily on three-pointers on offense, leading the league with 847 made (11.4 per game). Moving on to Houston’s defense, the Rockets have the best opponent three-point field goal percentage in the league at .318. Houston is the third-best team in the league at scoring points off turnovers with 19.0 per game.
The Mavericks’ win over Houston in their last game brought the head-to-head record to an even 5-5 SU over the last 10 meetings. On the other hand, the Rockets hold the advantage ATS with a record of 5-4-1. Houston held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers twice, while Dallas was never able to do so in their most recent 10 games.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – HOU
Notes
Dallas scores an average of 104.1 points per game (ranked third). Houston ranks 16th in points allowed per game with 100.1.
On average, Dallas puts up 106.4 points per home game (ranked fourth). Houston ranks 22nd in points allowed per road game with 103.0.
The Houston Rockets lost their last game by a three-point margin. In games decided by a margin of three points or less, the Dallas Mavericks are 3-4. Houston is 7-3 in close games this season.
In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Houston Rockets are a stellar 33-4. In games where they score fewer than 100 points, the Dallas Mavericks have an underachieving record of 8-18.
When the Houston Rockets allow at least 100 points they are 17-20, while the Dallas Mavericks are 37-11 when they reach the century mark.
The Mavericks have a defensive rating of 103.0 (ranked 17th), while the Rockets rank 12th for their offensive rating of 103.5.
The Dallas Mavericks have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking sixth in the league with a FG% of 46.0%. When their opponents record a similar or higher FG%, the Houston Rockets have a poor 11-19 record.
The Dallas Mavericks average 25.8 three point attempts per game, and the Houston Rockets attempt 33.1 per game. When going for at least 25 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; Dallas is 32-15 and Houston is 48-23.
The Dallas Mavericks, with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.78, rank seventh in the NBA. The Houston Rockets have a lower A/TO (1.38), ranking 27th.
The Mavericks rank 23rd in rebounds per game with 42.1, while the Rockets rank 15th with 43.6 per game.
The Houston Rockets rank sixth in offensive rebounding, while the Dallas Mavericks rank 24th in defensive rebounding.
On average, the Mavericks force a turnover rate of 16.0%, ranked third in the NBA. When the Rockets turn over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 27-12 record.
