This is the second of the home-and-home meetings between the two sides – the Grizzlies will return the hospitality by welcoming Dallas in their town and arena. As the rivals played games so close to one another, I decided to wait and learn from the first game and hopefully turn into profit on this one.
Mavericks at Grizzlies
Spread: Memphis -8.5 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 196.5 points (-110)
Mavericks improve fundamentals, win for the first time this season
The Mavericks opened up this season slowly, losing their first three games with little resistance. Last night, they wasted no time. Dallas protected their home court in a home-and-home double with the Memphis Grizzlies by a strong first quarter. They jumped up in front by a double-digit margin and managed to hold onto to it to win 103-94.
Starring at a potential of falling to Grizzlies twice, the Mavericks improved on all things that need effort. They lost the rebounding battle again, but only marginally, which felt as a win. They played with a little more pace than they usually do. The 32 points scored in the first quarter were a season high. The energy to the starting lineup was infused by the addition of center Nerlens Noel to it. It was really encouraging to see the new lineup work, but it might have been a matchup thing more than Carlisle’s decision to drop the idea of playing small with Nowitzki in the middle. Noel ended up playing only 20 minutes, but was terrific in them, and the Mavs have finally had the looks and the means of an NBA team. Dennis Smith contributed as well with 19 points, but the game still hasn’t slowed down for him. He was hesitant, missed free throws and made the most positives only with his supreme athleticism. Still, his team needs him to score, as long as they wait for Seth Curry to recover from an injury, and Harrison Barnes finds his missing shot.
Devin Harris returned to the squad for this game, but he will not travel to Memphis as he continues to grieve the death of his brother. There is no other team news, but don’t be surprised if Nowitzki sits out this game. The legendary Maverick is 39 years-old, and is off to an awfully slow start of the season, so this might not hurt Dallas much, if at all.
Place: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Date/Time: Thursday, October 26th, 2017. 8:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: Fox Sports Tennessee, FSSW
Gasol, Conley don’t get enough support
The Memphis Grizzlies lost for the first time this season, to probably the worst team they had to face. They don’t have the luxury of overlooking almost any opponent, but I don’t think that was the case here. The stars were leading the way like they usually do. Gasol scored a very efficient 26 points, and had 11 boards and 4 assists. Conley added 21 points of his own, on 7-of-15 shooting. When those two play this way, the supporting cast usually follows for the Grizzlies. Last night in Dallas, it didn’t work well.
The Grizzlies chose to rest Chandler Parsons on the first night of the back-to-back, opting to play him in Memphis instead in front of fans that don’t like him very much. Starting forward JaMychal Green is still recovering from an ankle injury, so Memphis wasn’t at full strength. Someone has to step up, yet the only player to score in double digits except Gasol and Conley, was a 13-point Evans. Dallas don’t score much, but you can’t expect to win many games by scoring in low nineties. Usually very reliable from the free throw line, the Grizzlies shot only 16-of-24 (Gasol made just 3-of-8). That didn’t help. Second unit ball handlers were terrible in ball protection. Chalmers and Dillon Brooks have been praise for few really good games coming up to the game, but combined for 10 turnovers and 8 personal fouls in limited minutes. Still, the Grizzlies absorbed the initial Mavericks punch and adjusted to their new lineups, grinding down the big lead to just 3-point deficit in the fourth, but couldn’t turn it around in the end.
The Grizzlies won’t be surprised by the Mavericks this time, and will play with more players (although Green will continue to sit). They will hit more free throws. What’s most troubling was that they allowed a high percentage of Dallas shots to fall, so look at them to try and find a way to frustrate Mavs a bit more on that end.
Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies Game Trends & Prediction
This was not only the first win for Dallas, but also the first time they managed to cover the spread. The Mavericks are 1-4 against the spread overall and 1-2-1 against the over/under. The total points settled at 197 last night, earning them a push, but the market cashed in with overs with earlier wagers as the line moved upwards.
The Memphis Grizzlies surrendered for the first time, falling 3-1 SU and ATS. 103 points allowed was the most this season (remember, the Grizz played Warriors and Rockets prior to the last game in Dallas) and the first time the closing line wouldn’t result in under this season. They are now officially sporting a 0-3-1 record, although your unders ended in red.
A unique ranking system – AdmiRank helps you understand how good NBA teams are on a scale to 100. One game outcome isn’t enough to eradicate what was done previously, so the Mavericks are still looking to go more below the NBA average, while the Grizzlies kept some of the momentum gained with high profile wins.
A team that plays better usually wins most NBA games. That’s not always the better team. Just the one that plays better in that particular game. It’s hard to beat a team on consecutive nights. And the Mavericks may very well rest a couple of older players. Still, it’s the usual of a home-and-home mechanics that is the main culprit of the line being set at -8.5 for this game. Memphis was a 3.5 favorite in Dallas, and is now expected to win the second game. It’s really disappointing to see the Grizzlies losing so much value so quickly, but that’s how the books are responding to having started the season perfectly. My fair number for this game is 7.5, so there’s no wager on either side when spread betting is considered. I’ll be going after the under points. The total points is set at 196.5, and will probably settle at 197 again, giving me more than enough room to go after it. The pace the game was played at was excellent, and Dallas won’t shoot that well again. Take the minus points and cash in with me.
My Pick: (no wager on the spread)
Total: under 196.5 (-110)
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