It will be a battle between Southwest Division opponents when the New Orleans Pelicans (40-30) welcome the Dallas Mavericks (22-48) to Smoothie King Center. The game can be seen on Fox Sports – New Orleans at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 20, 2018.
New Orleans opened as a 9-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 218.5 points.
Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans ATS Prediction
In the Mavericks’ last contest, they were beaten by the Brooklyn Nets, 114-106. Brooklyn’s free throw rate was their largest advantage over Dallas. The Nets had a rate of 0.167 (below their season average of 0.202), while the Mavericks posted a mark of 0.130 (below their season average of 0.172). Yogi Ferrell had a solid game for Dallas, putting up 12 points, 12 assists and five rebounds.
The Pelicans dismantled the Boston Celtics in their last contest, 108-89. The Pelicans made 20 of their 25 free throws (80.0 percent) and held the Celtics to an effective field goal percentage of 0.454 (below their season average of 0.519). Anthony Davis was the game’s leading scorer with 34 points on 14-for-24 shooting.
Opposite tempos will be on display in this meeting. New Orleans has preferred to play quickly (second in possessions per game), while Dallas has been more methodical (25th in possessions per game). The Mavericks should have an advantage in terms of ball protection. They rank 3rd at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.2 percent), while the Pelicans force the fifth-fewest turnovers in the league (opponents’ turnover percentage of 13.1 percent).
Dallas holds records of 22-48 straight up (SU) and 36-34 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Mavericks’ games have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, New Orleans is 40-30 SU and 38-32 ATS. Games including the Pelicans have typically gone over the total (60.0 percent).
The Pelicans have won two out of three against the Mavericks this season, including a 17-point victory the last time these teams met. New Orleans covered as a 3.5-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 235 points, which was 12.5 points above the projected point total of 222.5 points. New Orleans was lights out from beyond the arc (12-26; 46.2 percent). Dallas, on the other hand, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (19.6 vs. 15.4). Davis recorded a double-double with 23 points and 13 rebounds.
Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Dallas is 19-15 ATS on the road with 18 unders and 16 overs.
At home, New Orleans is 15-19 ATS with 24 overs and 10 unders.
Dallas is 15-11 when they allow below 100 points, while New Orleans is 9-2.
When reaching the century mark, the Pelicans are 38-19 and the Mavericks are 16-24.
New Orleans ranks second in points in the paint per game (51.8) while Dallas ranks last (38.7).
The Pelicans rank third in blocks per game (5.9) while the Mavericks rank 29th (3.7).
Dallas ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.0) while New Orleans ranks 24th (17.6).
The Mavericks rank fourth in second chance points allowed per game (11.1) while the Pelicans rank 27th (13.5).
New Orleans averages 14.5 fast break points per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Dallas ranks 27th in fast break points allowed per game (14.1).
The Mavericks average 32.1 three pointers per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 25th in three pointers allowed per game (30.6).
New Orleans ranks 12th in rebounds per game (43.9) while Dallas ranks 25th in rebounds allowed per game (45.4).
The Pelicans rank second in assists per game (26.5) while the Mavericks rank 15th (22.7).
Dallas ranks 22nd in steals per game (7.1) while New Orleans ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
New Orleans is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Mavericks have outscored opponents by an average of 1.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Dallas has been defeated by an average of 2.4 points.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 104.0 points per game (7.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.0 points per game (6.1 below their season average).
