The Dallas Mavericks (3-7) will try to snap their five-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Utah Jazz (4-6) at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The game is scheduled to start at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 7, 2018.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Free Prediction
The Mavericks come in on a high note after easily covering the 5.5-point spread against the Washington Wizards in their last game, 119-100. The total points for the game (219) finished just over the projected point total of 216. The Mavericks held the Wizards to an offensive rebounding percentage of 11.1 (below their season average of 18.9) and had a free throw rate of 0.317 (above their season average of 0.190). Harrison Barnes had a good game for Dallas, contributing 19 points and 13 rebounds.
In the Jazz’s last game, they lost to the Toronto Raptors, 124-111, despite being 3.5-point favorites. The game’s total points (235) came in well over the O/U total of 214. Toronto’s 0.645 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Utah, who had a rate of 0.488. The Raptors’ mark was above their season average of 0.549. With 14 points and 12 rebounds, Utah’s Rudy Gobert had a good performance.
The aggressive Utah offense looks poised to dominate from the charity stripe. The Jazz currently rank third in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.258, while Dallas ranks 24th in FTA rate allowed (0.225).
Dallas has a respectable record against the spread (5-4), despite being 3-7 straight up (SU). Oddsmakers have a tendency to set the total low when the Mavericks are involved, as 66.7 percent of their contests have ended over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Utah owns records of 4-6 SU and 4-6 ATS. Much like Dallas, Jazz games also have typically gone over the total (70.0 percent).
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Gobert recorded 23 points and 16 rebounds in the first game, in which the Jazz defeated the Mavericks 113-104, covering as 4.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 217 points, which was just 3.5 points above the projected point total of 213.5 points. Utah made 10 of its 25 three pointers (40.0 percent). Dallas, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (11.3 vs. 16.7).
Mavericks at Jazz ATS Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Utah is 1-3 ATS at home with 3 overs and 1 under.
When allowing less than 100 points, Utah is 1-1.
In games where they score above 100 points, the Mavericks are 3-7 and the Jazz are 4-4.
Utah ranks fifth in assists allowed per game (21.9) while Dallas ranks 26th (25.5).
The Jazz rank sixth in fast break points allowed per game (11.9) while the Mavericks rank 26th (16.6).
Dallas averages 19.2 points off turnovers per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Utah ranks 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.6).
The Jazz rank 10th in steals per game (8.1) while the Mavericks rank 23rd in steals allowed per game (9.4).
Dallas ranks fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.8) while Utah ranks 15th (49.4).
The Mavericks rank fifth in three pointers attempted per game (35.4) while the Jazz rank 14th (31.9).
Dallas leads the league with 10.0 second chance points allowed per game while Utah is fifth with 11.3 second chance points allowed per game.
The Jazz rank third in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while the Mavericks rank fifth (4.4).
Dallas allows the third-fewest rebounds per game (41.1) while Utah ranks fourth (41.2).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five contests, Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Utah is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.6, down from 3.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 107.4 points per game (2.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 113.8 points per game (3.6 above their season average).
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