The No.10-seeded Syracuse Orange square off against the No.7-seeded Dayton Flyers in the first round of the NCAA tournament at Scottrade Center. The game starts at 12:15 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 18 and can be seen on CBS.
The Flyers are expecting a different result after their 82-79 loss to Saint Joseph’s in the 4 of the Atlantic 10 tournament. Despite the loss, Scoochie Smith earned his first double-double this season with 14 points and 11 assists. The Orange, meanwhile, are coming off a close 72-71 loss against Pittsburgh in the 2 of the Atlantic Coast tournament. Michael Gbinije led the team in scoring with 24 points.
Over the last five games, Smith has been playing at a high level for the Flyers, averaging 16.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.6 three-pointers.
The Flyers have gone 25-7 Straight Up (SU) and 14-17-1 Against The Spread (ATS). Dayton’s defense can be considered one of the best in the country. The Flyers allow a .405 opponent field-goal percentage, one of the lowest shooting rates in the country.
As for their opponent, the Orange have 19-13 SU and 16-15 ATS records. Most recently, Syracuse is a meager 1-8-1 ATS over the last 10 games. The Syracuse defense has been a problem for competitors, allowing only 7.0 field goals from three-point range per game.
Dayton and Syracuse have not played one another in a regular season matchup in recent years.
Predictions: SU Winner – Syr, ATS Winner – Syr
Notes
“Dayton is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games “.
“Dayton is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games “.
“The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dayton’s last 11 games “.
The Syracuse Orange have a defensive rating of 100.4 (ranked 44th), while the Dayton Flyers have an offensive rating of 106.3 (ranked 166th).
The Dayton Flyers average 68.8 possessions per game and 1.063 points per possession, while the Syracuse Orange earn fewer possessions (65.2) but more points per possession (1.077).
Syracuse has an average effective field goal percentage of 50.4%. Dayton is a solid 8-3 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, the Dayton Flyers attempt 19.0 three point field goals per game and the Syracuse Orange attempt 24.0. In games where they attempt at least 20 threes, Dayton has a formidable 15-4 record, while Syracuse is 15-11.
Dayton ranks 59th in blocks per game with 4.4 and Syracuse ranks 97th with 4.1 blocks per game.
The Syracuse Orange rank 97th in offensive rebounds, and the Dayton Flyers rank 14th in the nation in defensive rebounds.
Though Syracuse is one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TO% of 20.8% (ranked 16th), Dayton has a superb 12-2 record SU when it has a TO% of 20.8% or greater.
