Sadly, the injuries are a big part of the NBA. From impacting teams draft choices assessments and marking players like Sam Bowie or Greg Oden as all-time biggest busts, to changing the fortunes of a playoffs series like Kawhi Leonard’s did just last year, and completely impacting player’s career and franchise outlook. As much as the bettors have learned to adjust to a new script almost every day, some injuries have to be put under a microscope due to the magnitude of the impact on the market. When reports on Friday revealed the extent of DeMarcus Cousins injury, it sent waves of uncertainty throughout the NBA and the betting industry.
With MRI pending, the New Orleans Pelicans already revealed a complete Achilles’ tendon tear of their All-Star’s center left leg, ending his season. The injury occurred in the waning moments of the Pelicans’ fourth victory in a row, a thrilling triumph over the Houston Rockets, one of the most potent and consistent teams this season. The win propelled the Pelicans to a 27-21 record, good for the sixth-best in the West. It would give them almost a complete control of their playoff destiny. Cousins was not a small part of it.
DeMarcus Cousins’ contract year
The New Orleans Pelicans went all in when they made a trade for Cousins. He was the high profile, high impact player that the organization sought after. Acquiring him served as a testament of their front offices’ ability to get a premier talent and turn the franchise into a contender. It was also a reason to keep superstar of their own, Anthony Davis, from departing in 2020 when his contract expires. Ultimately, it would give the Pelicans an actual chance of competing with the Western powers.
Of course, Cousins came with some luggage. His work rate and locker room influence are far from desired. He operates in similar zones as Davis and asks for the ball all the time. The Pelicans didn’t give up too much to get him in the trade, but having two (now three, after having to re-sign Holiday due to lack of cap space) massive contracts ate all of their cap space. If it wouldn’t work, they would be impossible to get out of the deal. Finally, they were getting Cousins for only one and a half season, as he’s set to hit free agency this summer.
Achilles’ tears are among the worst injuries that can happen to NBA players. Very few come back from it and not have their athleticism and other abilities diminished. On average, those who make a complete recovery, lose about 8 percent of their overall ability. Recovery takes anywhere from 6 to 10 months, not including the months of generally cautious approach following player’s return to the court.
The untimely injury will severely hit Cousins’ offers come free agency. It also complicates things for his current employer, the Pelicans, who will have to weigh their options more carefully. However, having such a skilled player in a contract year had its good sides. Almost all NBA players try extra hard to impress in what’s the last guaranteed season, and Cousins was no different.
Boogie was averaging 25.2 points, 12.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists this season – only four players averaged those numbers for an entire season in the last 50 years and all four won MVP! While the individual numbers are boosted in the past few seasons due to increase in tempo and points in general, his versatility and interchangeability with Davis allowed the Pelicans to start three guards and get away with it.
Adding Cousins before the last year’s trade deadline meant that Pelicans coach Alvin Gentry was able to almost always keep at least one All-Star big man on the court at any given time. Now, the starting lineup that features Holiday, Rondo and fellow guard E’Twaun Moore will cause problems on the defensive glass without Cousins patrolling the interior alongside Davis. And as much as they need Davis on the court now, they simply have to sit him for at least 8 minutes a game without much, if any, support from reserve bigs or athletic forwards.
Impact on the betting
It’s really clear that the Pelicans will have to make major adjustments to cope with the loss. The magnitude of the changes is so big that implementing it on the fly likely won’t be too successful.
The good news is that the Pelicans played fairly well without Cousins, as long as they had Davis on the court. Before bringing him over from Sacramento, they were 23-34 last season, so returning to that level would still allow them to finish the season with .500 and sneak into the last playoff spot. Considering that they were a small underdog to make the cut prior to the season (+110 on making the playoffs on the opening day), it’s a deal they would take (considering only the standings). On the eve of Cousins injury, the Pelicans have had about 80-85 percent of chance of making the playoffs. Crashing to about 50 percent with the numbers advantage they have over the Clippers and the Jazz shows how much impact such an injury can have. After all, the Jazz with Gobert’s injuries, the Clippers with Griffin, Gallinari, Teodosic, and Beverley missing significant time and Memphis without Conley, turned from playoff-likely teams to wannabes looking from outside in.
With Cousins and Davis paired on the court, the Pelicans outscored their opposition by 4.1 points per 100 possessions this season, a really healthy number. Without Cousins (accounting for both missed games and the resting time on the bench), Anthony Davis would take on the load and the Pelicans actually outperformed the previous number (plus 6.9 points per 100 possessions). However, when Davis sat, even with Cousins available, the Pelicans were outscored by about three points. Without Cousins, it’ll only get worse.
On the flip side, the public will look at the traditional stats and mourn the Pelicans for Cousins’ loss. Never a responsible defender, Cousins was always filling the stat sheet but came short of impacting the game in such manner to make his team a winner.
Does he means much to his team? Yes. According to my research and estimation, Cousins is worth about 3.5 spread points (depending on the opposition and other factors, this number could change). It makes him among top 5 percent of the NBA players in terms of value. His impact on the total points is even larger. His sporadic missing from games over the course of his career makes the sample quite discrete, but the bettors should adjust their lines by lowering them by about 8 points on average. Short term, it’s quite possible that these estimations will be surpassed.
Market reaction will influence what stance I take. The books are unlikely to over-adjust. Even if they believe that Cousins’ absence will impact the Pelicans more than this, they’ll be happy to fade the opposition as they understand that it’s likely that the public bettors will jump on the opposition with this news.
The timing of the injury couldn’t be much worse for the Pelicans too. They are playing the 9th-placed Clippers on Sunday and should they lose they’ll immediately give up a sizeable chunk of the current 3-game lead over the team that’s chasing them. Their pre-All-Star schedule also includes trips to OKC and Minny, hosting Utah and Indiana and a short trip to the East where they’ll face Phila, Brooklyn, and Detroit. Sacramento and the LA Lakers at home are reasonably winnable, but this also means that they likely be overrated in those.
Fading them looks a good proposition, but either take your wagers early, before the public money or very late, prior to the tip-off, after the sharps finish correcting the public overzealous betting contra this team. Going for unders is also the way, but this only applies if Gentry puts a more traditional lineup out there. Davis can’t play with a traditional center, so you shouldn’t expect that, but there’s a world of difference between Cunningham joining the starting lineup and having Nelson or Clark out there.
Without Cousins, the Pelicans shouldn’t be considered for any futures. Even if they reach the playoffs, they’ll likely be ousted from it immediately. Personally, I don’t even expect to see them in the postseason.
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