The Chicago Bulls (2-5) challenge the Denver Nuggets (5-1) at United Center. The game can be seen on NBC Sports Chicago at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 31, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 226.5 points with Denver set as an 8-point favorite.
Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls ATS Prediction
Although the Nuggets beat the New Orleans Pelicans in their last outing, 116-111, they were unable to cover as 9.5-point favorites. The game’s total points (227) came in just under the O/U total of 230. The Nuggets forced 22 turnovers, while the Pelicans had a free throw rate of 0.171 (below their season average of 0.230). Nikola Jokic had a solid performance for Denver, contributing 12 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds.
In the Bulls’ last matchup, they were blown out by the Golden State Warriors, 149-124. They failed to cover as 11-point underdogs. The total points for the game (273) finished well over the projected point total of 228. Golden State’s effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Chicago. The Warriors had a rate of 0.677 (above their season average of 0.583), while the Bulls posted a mark of 0.542. With 18 points and seven rebounds, Wendell Carter Jr. put together a good game for Chicago.
Getting to the line could be few and far between for Chicago in this showdown. Dating back to the 2017-18 season, the Bulls rank 29th in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.167, while Denver ranks fifth in FTA rate allowed (0.176). Furthermore, the fifth-ranked offense of the Nuggets (offensive efficiency of 110.2) will try to take advantage of the 28th-ranked defense of the Bulls (defensive efficiency of 110.3).
Denver comes into the contest with records of 5-1 straight up (SU) and 4-2 against the spread (ATS). Nuggets games have typically finished under the projected point total (66.7 percent).
Meanwhile, Chicago is 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS. Contrary to Denver, Bulls games tend to go over the projected point total (57.1 percent).
The Nuggets won both games against the Bulls last season. In the most recent contest, Denver won 135-102. The Nuggets had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.735 vs. 0.511) and had a better free throw rate (0.157 vs. 0.124).
Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls Free Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Chicago is 9-6 when they allow less than 100 points, while Denver is 18-2.
The Nuggets are 44-27 when they reach the century mark, while the Bulls are 25-31.
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while Chicago ranks 28th (45.8).
The Nuggets rank second in second chance points per game (14.2) while the Bulls rank 27th (11.1).
Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (25.1) while Chicago ranks 29th in assists allowed per game (25.9).
The Nuggets average 30.8 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Bulls rank last in three pointers allowed per game (33.2).
Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.7) while Chicago ranks 26th (42.1).
The Nuggets rank eighth in points off turnovers per game (17.0) while the Bulls rank 28th (14.7).
Denver ranks 13th in blocks per game (5.0) while Chicago ranks last (3.6).
The Bulls average 11.7 fast break points per game, which ranks 15th in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 21st in fast break points allowed per game (12.9).
Chicago ranks 19th in steals per game (7.5) while Denver ranks 20th in steals allowed per game (7.9).
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