The Dallas Mavericks (19-45) challenge the Denver Nuggets (35-28) at American Airlines Center. The game will air on Altitude 2 Sports at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 6, 2018.
Denver is a 4.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 219.5 points.
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction
In the Nuggets’ last matchup, they beat the Cleveland Cavaliers, 126-117. Denver was lights out from beyond the arc (19-35; 54.3 percent). Cleveland, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 29.3 (above their season average of 19.6). With 32 points on 10-for-17 shooting, Gary Harris was the top scorer from either team.
The Mavericks lost to the New Orleans Pelicans in their last outing, 126-109. New Orleans’ effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Dallas. The Pelicans had a rate of 0.604 (above their season average of 0.542), while the Mavericks posted a mark of 0.500. Dallas’ Dennis Smith Jr. put together a solid game, leading the team in scoring with 23 points on 9-for-22 shooting.
Dallas could have trouble getting to the foul line in this meeting. The Mavericks currently rank 27th in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.170, while Denver ranks fourth in FTA rate allowed (0.175).
Denver comes into the contest with records of 35-28 straight up (SU) and 29-31-3 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Nuggets have a slight tendency to go under the O/U total (50.8 percent).
Meanwhile, Dallas owns records of 19-45 SU and 32-32 ATS. Much like Denver, a little over half of Mavericks games have finished under the total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Will Barton (20.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.2 steals) has been great for the Nuggets while Dwight Powell (10.0 points and 9.0 rebounds) has made great contributions to the Mavericks.
The Nuggets lead the season series against the Mavericks two games to one, including a narrow two-point victory the last time these teams met. Denver was unable to cover as an 8-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 180 points, which was 29 points below the projected point total of 209 points. The Nuggets had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (20.5 vs. 15.4) and had a better free throw rate (0.136 vs. 0.118). Nikola Jokic put up a triple-double in the victory, with 11 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists.
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Pick
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Denver is 12-16-2 ATS on the road with 15 overs and 15 unders.
At home, Dallas is 15-18 ATS with 17 unders, 15 overs and 1 push.
When allowing below 100 points, Denver is 13-2 and Dallas is 13-11.
When reaching 100 points, the Mavericks are 13-22 and the Nuggets are 29-19.
Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.1) while Dallas ranks last (38.3).
The Mavericks rank second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.1) while the Nuggets rank 28th (19.0).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (40.9) while Dallas ranks 27th (45.5).
The Nuggets rank fourth in second chance points per game (13.8) while the Mavericks rank 29th (10.1).
Denver ranks eighth in fast break points per game (13.7) while Dallas ranks 27th in fast break points allowed per game (14.2).
The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (24.7) while the Mavericks rank 16th (22.6).
Denver ranks 17th in blocks per game (4.6) while Dallas ranks 26th (3.8).
The Nuggets average 30.4 three pointers per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 16th in three pointers allowed per game (29.4).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.2, up from 1.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 103.6 points per game (1.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.0 points per game (3.9 above their season average).
