The Denver Nuggets (4-0) look to remain unbeaten when they clash with the Los Angeles Lakers (1-3) at Staples Center. The game will air on TNT at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 25, 2018.
Denver is a 3.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 239 points.
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers ATS Prediction
In the Nuggets’ last outing, they covered the 12-point spread against the Sacramento Kings, 126-112. The total points for the game (238) finished over the O/U total of 229.5. The Nuggets, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.1, had a fantastic mark of 33.3, while the Kings had a turnover percentage of 14.4 (above their season average of 11.1). Denver rallied around Nikola Jokic, who recorded 14 points, 12 rebounds and six assists.
The Lakers won big over the Phoenix Suns in their last contest, 131-113, despite being 1.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (244) finished well over the O/U total of 226.5. Los Angeles’ turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Phoenix. The Lakers had a rate of 6.8 (better than their season average of 10.7), while the Suns posted a mark of 16.9 (above the 10.9 mark opponents have averaged against Los Angeles this season). With 19 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds, Los Angeles’ LeBron James had a good outing.
It will be a showdown of contrasting paces as the fast-breaking Lakers will look to push the slower-paced Nuggets. Since the 2017-18 season, the Lakers rank first in possessions per game while the Nuggets are 14th.
Since last season, the Nuggets are 50-36 straight up (SU) and 49-35-2 against the spread (ATS). Since last season, games involving Denver have had a tendency to go over the O/U total (59.3 percent).
The Lakers, on the other hand, are 36-50 SU and 37-46-2 ATS since last season. Games featuring Los Angeles have had a slight tendency to finish over the O/U total over that same time frame (54.1 percent).
These two teams split four games last season. The Lakers won the most recent contest 112-103. The Lakers had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (23.5 vs. 11.1) and had a better turnover percentage (12.9 vs. 16.8).
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Lakers, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Los Angeles is 13-5 when they allow less than 100 points, while Denver is 18-2.
The Lakers are 33-32 when they reach 100 points, while the Nuggets are 43-26.
Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.3) while Los Angeles ranks last in points allowed in the paint per game (49.3).
The Nuggets rank third in second chance points per game (14.1) while the Lakers rank 26th in second chance points allowed per game (13.3).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while Los Angeles ranks 24th (45.0).
The Lakers average 18.2 fast break points per game, which ranks second in the league. The Nuggets rank 21st in fast break points allowed per game (12.9).
Los Angeles averages 24.0 assists per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Denver ranks 25th in assists allowed per game (24.7).
The Nuggets rank 10th in points off turnovers per game (16.9) while the Lakers rank 27th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.2).
Denver ranks 12th in blocks per game (4.9) while Los Angeles ranks 27th in blocks allowed per game (5.5).
The Nuggets average 30.8 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Lakers rank 20th in three pointers allowed per game (30.3).
Denver averages 7.8 steals per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. Los Angeles ranks 24th in steals allowed per game (8.3).
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