It will be a battle between Northwest Division opponents when the Minnesota Timberwolves (7-10) welcome the Denver Nuggets (10-7) to the Target Center. The game will air on Altitude 2 Sports at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 21, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 215.5 points with Minnesota set as a 1.5-point favorite.
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Prediction
The Nuggets were unable to cover as 5.5-point underdogs in their 104-98 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks in their last matchup. The combined points for the game (202) were well under the O/U total of 224.5. Milwaukee’s free throw rate was their largest strength over Denver. The Bucks had a rate of 0.148 (below their season average of 0.185), while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.064 (below their season average of 0.200). Jamal Murray had a solid game for Denver, finishing with 17 points, nine assists and eight rebounds.
The last time the Timberwolves played, they fell to the Memphis Grizzlies, 100-87, despite being 5.5-point favorites. The total points for the game (187) finished well under the O/U total of 208.5. Memphis’ turnover percentage was the team’s biggest strength over Minnesota. The Grizzlies posted a mark of 11.4 (stronger than their season average of 12.0), while the Timberwolves had a rate of 18.7 (above their season average of 11.7). Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns finished with 15 points and 20 rebounds in the contest.
After the Timberwolves won three out of four meetings against the Nuggets last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the most recent matchup, Minnesota won 112-106. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Minnesota’s biggest strengths. They had 25 free throw attempts, while Denver had 18.
Denver holds records of 10-7 straight up (SU) and 8-9 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to place the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 10 of their 17 games have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is 7-10 SU and 8-9 ATS. Similarly to Denver, games featuring the Timberwolves also have a tendency to go under the total (64.7 percent).
Towns has averaged 23 points,14.8 rebounds,1.8 blocks over the last five games for Minnesota.
Minnesota might struggle to put up points as they clash against one of the NBA’s best defenses. Denver ranks ninth in defensive efficiency, while the Timberwolves rank 20th in offensive efficiency. Moreover, the Nuggets are among the league’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking second in offensive rebounding percentage (27.2 percent). The Timberwolves, meanwhile, rank 30th in defensive rebounding percentage (70.8 percent).
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Denver is 2-5 ATS on the road with 5 unders and 2 overs.
Minnesota is 6-3 ATS at home with 5 unders and 4 overs.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Denver is 6-1 and Minnesota is 2-0.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Nuggets are 10-4 and the Timberwolves are 7-6.
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.2) while Minnesota ranks 27th (48.8).
The Nuggets rank fifth in second chance points per game (15.6) while the Timberwolves rank 29th in second chance points allowed per game (17.0).
Denver ranks sixth in assists per game (25.9) while Minnesota ranks 26th in assists allowed per game (25.3).
The Timberwolves rank second in steals allowed per game (6.7) while the Nuggets rank 19th (7.8).
Denver averages 53.2 points in the paint per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Minnesota ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (49.5).
The Nuggets rank 11 in points off turnovers per game (17.58823529411765) while the Timberwolves rank 25 (15.470588235294118).
Minnesota averages 5.647058823529412 blocks per game, which ranks 10 in the NBA. Denver ranks 22 in blocks allowed per game (6.117647058823529).
The Nuggets average 30 three pointers per game, which ranks 18 in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 23 in three pointers allowed per game (32.88235294117647).
Minnesota ranks 6 in fast break points per game (16.294117647058822) while Denver ranks 10 in fast break points allowed per game (12.764705882352942).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five contests, Denver is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Minnesota is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.4, down from 6.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 107.2 points per game (2.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.0 points per game (8.1 below their season average).
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