The New Orleans Pelicans (8-7) square off with the Denver Nuggets (10-5) at the Smoothie King Center. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 17, 2018, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainment.
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans ATS Prediction
The last time the Nuggets played, they comfortably covered the 14-point spread against the Atlanta Hawks, 138-93. The game’s combined points (231) finished over the O/U total of 223. The Nuggets, who came into the game averaging an effective field goal percentage of 0.515, had an extraordinary mark of 0.633 and had a better turnover percentage (12.5 vs. 15.5). Paul Millsap had a good game for Denver, putting up 18 points, nine rebounds and five assists.
The Pelicans defeated the New York Knicks in their last outing, 129-124, despite being 2-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (253) came in well over the O/U total of 232.5. One of New Orleans’ biggest advantages was getting to the charity stripe. They made 32 trips to the line, while New York went 24 times. Anthony Davis was the game’s high scorer with 43 points on 16-for-25 shooting from the field.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Nikola Jokic had 12 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds in the first game, in which the Nuggets defeated the Pelicans 116-111 but did not cover as 9.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 227 points, which was just 3 points below the projected point total of 230 points. The Nuggets had a much better turnover percentage (11.2 vs. 19.5) and had a better free throw rate (0.226 vs. 0.171).
Denver holds records of 10-5 straight up (SU) and 8-7 against the spread (ATS). Nuggets matchups have a tendency to go under the total (60.0 percent).
Meanwhile, New Orleans is 8-7 SU and 6-8 ATS. Of the Pelicans’ 14 games with betting action, seven have finished over the O/U total.
Jrue Holiday has averaged 20.2 points, 11.2 assists, 5.4 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks over the last five games for New Orleans.
It will be a showdown of opposite tempos as the up-and-down Pelicans will look to push the more half-court-oriented Nuggets. The Pelicans rank third in possessions per game while the Nuggets are 25th.
Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Pelicans ATS Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
At home, New Orleans is 3-3 ATS with 3 unders, 2 overs and 1 push.
In games where they allow below 100 points, New Orleans is 2-0 and Denver is 6-1.
The Pelicans are 8-6 when they score above 100 points, while the Nuggets are 10-3.
Denver ranks 10th in fast break points allowed per game (12.5) while New Orleans ranks 28th (16.9).
The Nuggets average 25.3 assists per game, which ranks seventh in the league. The Pelicans rank 25th in assists allowed per game (24.6).
Denver ranks sixth in steals per game (8.9) while New Orleans ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (9.0).
The Nuggets average 53.5 points in the paint per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (50.3).
Denver ranks ninth in points off turnovers per game (18.1) while New Orleans ranks 25th (15.4).
The Pelicans average 5.7 blocks per game, which ranks 12th in the league. The Nuggets rank 23rd in blocks allowed per game (6.2).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (40.3) while New Orleans ranks eighth (43.6).
The Pelicans rank fourth in second chance points per game (15.8) while the Nuggets rank 10th in second chance points allowed per game (11.9).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five games, Denver is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
New Orleans is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.8, down from 7.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 116.2 points per game (1.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.6 points per game (8.7 below their season average).
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