The Denver Nuggets (16-7) look to lengthen their six-game winning streak against the Orlando Magic (12-12) at Amway Center. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 5, 2018, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Denver is a 5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 208.5 points.
Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic ATS Prediction
The Nuggets come in on a high note after edging the Toronto Raptors in their last contest, 106-103, as 7-point underdogs. The total points for the game (209) were under the O/U total of 219.5. Denver won the rebounding battle. The Nuggets had 15 offensive rebounds and 49 total rebounds, while the Raptors had seven and 41, respectively. Nikola Jokic played a huge role in the victory for Denver, registering 23 points, 15 assists and 11 rebounds on his way to his first triple-double this year.
In the Magic’s previous outing, they defeated the Miami Heat, 105-90, easily covering as 4-point favorites. The combined points for the game (195) came in well under the projected point total of 215.5. The Magic made 15 of their 20 free throws (75.0 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 10.4 (better than their season average of 11.8). Aaron Gordon was the game’s high scorer with 20 points on 7-for-16 shooting from the field.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Mason Plumlee put up 15 points and 11 rebounds in the first matchup, in which the Nuggets defeated the Magic 112-87, covering as 8.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 199 points, which was 11 points below the projected point total of 210 points. The Nuggets had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (26.7 vs. 9.3) and had a better turnover percentage (9.9 vs. 13.0).
Denver heads into the contest with records of 16-7 straight up (SU) and 14-9 against the spread (ATS). Of the Nuggets’ 23 games, 15 have gone under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Orlando owns records of 12-12 SU and 14-8-1 ATS. Similarly to Denver, Magic games also have a tendency to finish under the total (60.9 percent).
Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross have played at a high level over the last five games for Orlando. Vucevic has averaged 24 points,11.6 rebounds,4.6 assists,1.2 blocks per game. Not to be outdone, Ross has put up 19 points,1.4 steals a game during that span.
The inefficient offense of Orlando will battle against the stingy defense of Denver. The Magic currently rank 21st in offensive efficiency, while the Nuggets are fourth in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets should have the edge on that end of the court.
Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic ATS Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Denver is 6-5 ATS with 8 unders and 3 overs.
Orlando is 6-6 ATS at home with 8 unders and 4 overs.
Denver is 9-1 when they allow below 100 points, while Orlando is 4-1.
The Nuggets are 16-4 when they score over 100 points, while the Magic are 10-5.
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while Orlando ranks 24th (46.3).
The Nuggets rank sixth in points in the paint per game (52.8) while the Magic rank 26th (43.3).
Orlando ranks third in steals allowed per game (6.7) while Denver ranks 16th (7.8).
The Magic average 5.6 blocks per game, which ranks 11th in the league. The Nuggets rank 23rd in blocks allowed per game (5.8).
Denver averages 15.9 second chance points per game, which ranks third in the NBA. Orlando ranks 15th in second chance points allowed per game (13.4).
The Nuggets rank 15 in fast break points per game (13) while the Magic rank 25 (10.375).
Denver averages 26.782608695652176 assists per game, which ranks 4 in the league. Orlando ranks 8 in assists allowed per game (22.958333333333332).
The Magic rank 16 in three pointers attempted per game (31.208333333333332) while the Nuggets rank 17 in three pointers allowed per game (31.434782608695652).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five contests, Denver is 5-0 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Orlando is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 13.6, up from 7.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Magic have scored an average of 106.8 points per game (1.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 102.0 points per game (5.4 below their season average).
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