Offense meets defense when the Toronto Raptors (20-4) welcome the Denver Nuggets (15-7) to Scotiabank Arena. The game will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainment at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, December 3, 2018.
Denver Nuggets at Toronto Raptors Free Prediction
The Nuggets come in on a high note after barely hanging on to beat the Portland Trail Blazers in their last outing, 113-112, as 2-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (225) finished over the projected point total of 214. Denver’s 10.1 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Portland, who had a mark of 12.9. The Nuggets’ mark was better than their season average of 12.0. Denver was lifted by Paul Millsap, who recorded 22 points and 10 rebounds.
The last time the Raptors played, they defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers, 106-95, but failed to cover as 12-point favorites. The game’s combined points (201) finished under the O/U total of 213. The Raptors held the Cavaliers to an effective field goal percentage of 0.415 (below their season average of 0.494) and had a free throw rate of 0.263 (above their season average of 0.192). Kawhi Leonard was the game’s high scorer with 34 points on 11-for-21 shooting from the field.
This matchup pits one of the NBA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Toronto currently ranks second in offensive efficiency and Denver ranks fourth in defensive efficiency. Moreover, the Nuggets, who rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (27.5 percent), will try to exploit the Raptors, who rank 24th in defensive rebounding percentage (75.2 percent).
Denver heads into the contest with records of 15-7 straight up (SU) and 13-9 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 63.6 percent of their contests have ended under the total.
Meanwhile, Toronto is 20-4 SU and 12-12 ATS. Unlike Denver, games featuring the Raptors have typically gone over the total (66.7 percent).
After splitting two games last season, these teams will meet for the first time this year. In the last game, the Raptors won 114-110. The Raptors’ turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Nuggets. Toronto had a rate of 8.6, while Denver posted a mark of 10.4.
Nuggets at Raptors ATS Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Denver is 5-5 ATS on the road with 7 unders and 3 overs.
Toronto is 5-7 ATS at home with 10 overs and 2 unders.
Denver is 9-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Toronto is 4-0.
The Raptors are 19-4 when they reach 100 points, while the Nuggets are 15-4.
Toronto ranks third in fast break points per game (18.8) while Denver ranks 15th (13.0).
The Raptors rank sixth in points in the paint per game (52.6) while the Nuggets rank 17th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.7).
Denver averages 15.5 second chance points per game, which ranks fourth in the league. Toronto ranks 15th in second chance points allowed per game (13.5).
The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (26.5) while the Raptors rank 14th in assists allowed per game (23.8).
Toronto ranks 14th in blocks per game (5.5) while Denver ranks 22nd in blocks allowed per game (5.8).
The Raptors rank 8 in three pointers attempted per game (33.416666666666664) while the Nuggets rank 16 in three pointers allowed per game (31).
Denver ranks 1 in rebounds allowed per game (41.59090909090909) while Toronto ranks 9 (43.5).
The Raptors rank 7 in points off turnovers per game (18.875) while the Nuggets rank 14 in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.954545454545453).
Toronto averages 8.041666666666666 steals per game, which ranks 12 in the league. Denver ranks 15 in steals allowed per game (7.636363636363637).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five games, Denver is 5-0 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Toronto is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 13.4, up from 7.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Raptors have scored an average of 121.8 points per game (4.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 111.8 points per game (3.4 above their season average).
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