The Portland Trail Blazers (43-38) and Denver Nuggets (33-48) will square off at the Moda Center to close out the regular season. Action starts at 10:30 pm ET on Wednesday, Apr. 13 and can be seen on ALT and POR.
The Trail Blazers are hoping for a better outcome after their 106-105 loss to the Timberwolves on Saturday. Damian Lillard was the game’s high scorer, contributing 31 points. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are coming off a 100-84 loss against the Jazz on Sunday. Nikola Jokic scored 19 points and recorded 11 rebounds earning his 15th double-double of the season.
Mason Plumlee has really been playing well over the last five games for the Trail Blazers. During that stretch, he has averaged 12.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.6 blocks.
The battle on the backboards could prove decisive, pitting strength against strength. Portland is among the league’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking second in offensive rebound percentage at 25.8%. Meanwhile, the Nuggets rank second in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebound percentage of 77.4%. Moreover, the Nuggets are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking third in offensive rebound percentage at 25.7%. But the Trail Blazers rank fourth at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebound percentage of 76.5%.
The Trail Blazers lead the season series against the Nuggets two games to one, including a 112-106 win the last time these two teams met. Despite the loss, Danilo Gallinari was the game’s leading scorer with 29 points.
The Trail Blazers enter the game with records of 43-37 Straight Up (SU) and 44-36 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have only managed a record of 3-7 ATS. Against division opponents the Trail Blazers have not played well. Portland has only averaged 96.3 points per game compared to its 105.1 season average. Portland’s defense can be considered one of the best in the league. The Trail Blazers allow a .453 opponent field-goal percentage, one of the lowest shooting rates in the league.
As for their opponent, Denver has a SU record of 33-48 and an ATS record of 41-36-4. Against fellow division members, Denver has a 10-5 SU and an 8-7 ATS record. Offensively, the Nuggets have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 101.9 points per game by averaging 109.3 during that stretch.
Portland beat Denver in their most recent meeting this season, moving its SU record against the Nuggets to 9-1 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. At 5-5, they are even ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – Por
Notes
Portland scores an average of 105.1 points per game (ranked sixth). Denver ranks 22nd in points allowed per game with 105.0.
On average, Denver gives up 103.9 points per away game. Portland averages 108.1 points per home game, ranked third in scoring.
In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Portland Trail Blazers are an exceptional 21-5. In games where they fail to hit triple digits, the Denver Nuggets have an abysmal record of 3-24.
The Portland Trail Blazers have a 22-33 record when their opponents score at least 100 points. The Denver Nuggets have a 30-24 record when they register triple digits.
The Trail Blazers have an offensive rating of 106.8 (ranked seventh). The Nuggets rank sixth for their defensive rating of 107.1.
Portland averages fewer possessions per game than Denver, with 98.5 compared to 98.6. However, the Trail Blazers score an average of 1.068 points per possession, more than the 1.033 that the Nuggets score.
Portland is among the top-ranked teams based on its average effective field goal percentage of 51.1% (ranked ninth in the NBA). Denver is a subpar 9-32 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Portland makes an average of 21.3 assists per game (ranked 21st). Denver ranks higher in assists with 22.6 (ranked 14th).
Portland makes an average of 4.6 blocks per game (ranked 18th). Denver ranks higher in blocks with 4.8 (ranked 17th).
The Portland Trail Blazers rank fourth in offensive rebounding, while the Denver Nuggets rank 19th in defensive rebounding.
The Portland Trail Blazers average 6.8 steals per game. When giving up 6 or more steals, the Denver Nuggets have a poor record (22-37) this season.
