The Denver Nuggets (15-12) will have their hands full against the league’s top scoring defense when they take on the Boston Celtics (23-6) at TD Garden. The game will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 13, 2017.
Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics ATS Prediction
The Nuggets will be looking for similar success after thoroughly outplaying the Detroit Pistons in their last matchup, 103-84. Denver’s 0.570 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Detroit, who had a rate of 0.411. The Nuggets’ mark was above their season average of 0.524, while the Pistons’ was below their season average of 0.515. With 28 points on 11-for-19 shooting, Jamal Murray was the top scorer from either team.
The last time the Celtics played, they got blown out by the Chicago Bulls, 108-85. One of Chicago’s biggest advantages was getting to the free throw line. They made 25 trips to the line, while Boston went just 14 times. With 15 points on 6-for-14 shooting, Al Horford was Boston’s high scorer.
Getting to the line might be rare for Boston in this meeting. The Celtics currently rank 13th in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.207, while Denver ranks third in FTA rate allowed (0.167). Also, the Nuggets are among the NBA’s best on the offensive backboards, ranking first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.0 percent). The Celtics, however, rank fifth at grabbing defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 79.7 percent.
Denver comes into the game with records of 15-12 straight up (SU) and 10-16 against the spread (ATS). Nuggets games have a slight tendency to go under the total (53.8 percent).
Meanwhile, Boston is 23-6 SU and 20-8-1 ATS. Just over half of Celtics games have also finished under the projected point total.
Will Barton and Gary Harris have played at a high level over the last five games for Denver. Barton has averaged 18.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks per game. Not to be outdone, Harris has recorded 18.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.8 steals a game during that span.
After the Nuggets won both contests against the Celtics last season, these teams will clash for the first time this year. In the last matchup, Denver won 119-99. The Nuggets had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (30.6 vs. 18.8) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.600 vs. 0.494).
Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Denver is 3-11 ATS on the road with 7 overs and 7 unders.
At home, Boston is 9-4-1 ATS with 7 overs and 7 unders.
Boston is 17-0 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Denver is 7-1.
In games where they score above 100 points, the Nuggets are 13-7 and the Celtics are 16-3.
Boston ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.7) while Denver ranks last (20.3).
The Nuggets rank third in points in the paint per game (48.4) while the Celtics rank 27th (39.3).
Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.6) while Boston ranks 19th (11.9).
The Celtics rank fifth in assists allowed per game (20.5) while the Nuggets rank 22nd (24.1).
Boston ranks fourth in steals allowed per game (6.8) while Denver ranks 17th (8.0).
The Nuggets rank fourth in fast break points per game (15.0) while the Celtics rank 17th (9.7).
Boston averages 31.2 three pointers per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Denver ranks 18th in three pointers allowed per game (29.3).
The Nuggets rank eighth in rebounds per game (44.9) while the Celtics rank 13th in rebounds allowed per game (42.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Boston is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Nuggets have been outscored by an average of 0.6 points in their last five games. For the season, Denver has defeated opponents by an average of 0.4 points.
During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 97.2 points per game (6.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 96.8 points per game (0.5 below their season average).
