The Denver Nuggets (21-18) will try to slow down the NBA’s top scoring team when they challenge the Golden State Warriors (32-8) at ORACLE Arena. The game can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 10:30 p.m. ET on Monday, January 8, 2018.
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors Betting Prediction
The Nuggets are hoping for a better outcome after their 106-98 loss to the Sacramento Kings in their last outing. Sacramento’s 8.1 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Denver, who had a rate of 22.7. The Kings’ mark was better than their season average of 12.9, while the Nuggets’ was above their season average of 13.5. Trey Lyles was the game’s high scorer with 19 points on 8-for-11 shooting.
In the Warriors’ last game, they beat the Los Angeles Clippers, 121-105. The Warriors had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 31.4 (above their season average of 21.5) and had a free throw rate of 0.319 (above their season average of 0.192). Stephen Curry was the top scorer from either team with 45 points on 11-for-21 shooting.
The upper-echelon offense of Golden State (first in the NBA with an effective field goal percentage 0.575) will go head-to-head against the porous defense of Denver (25th in effective field goal percentage allowed 0.533). The Warriors should have the advantage on that side of the ball. Furthermore, the Nuggets could control the offensive glass in this matchup as they rank second in the league in offensive rebounding percentage at 26.5 percent. The Warriors, meanwhile, rank 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.7 percent).
Denver comes into the contest with records of 21-18 straight up (SU) and 19-19-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 22 of their 39 games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Golden State is 32-8 SU and 19-21 ATS. Unlike Denver, Warriors games have a tendency to finish over the total (55.0 percent).
Jamal Murray and Lyles have been playing well over the last five games for Denver. Murray has averaged 22.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. Not to be outdone, Lyles has recorded 19.4 points and 8.8 rebounds a game during that span.
The two teams have split their two matchups this season. The Nuggets won the most recent matchup 96-81, covering as 8-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 177 points, which was 39.5 points below the projected point total of 216.5 points. Denver had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.506 vs. 0.399). Golden State, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (14.9 vs. 16.9). Nikola Jokic had a standout performance in the victory, putting up 18 points and nine rebounds.
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Denver is 8-12-1 ATS on the road with 12 unders and 9 overs.
At home, Golden State is 9-11 ATS with 11 unders and 9 overs.
In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Golden State is 10-2 and Denver is 11-2.
The Warriors are 29-5 when they score more than 100 points, while the Nuggets are 17-11.
Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (14.8) while Golden State ranks 26th in second chance points allowed per game (13.4).
The Warriors rank first in assists per game (30.7) while the Nuggets rank 24th in assists allowed per game (24.1).
Golden State ranks seventh in steals per game (8.4) while Denver ranks 26th in steals allowed per game (8.4).
The Nuggets average 14.0 fast break points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Warriors rank 25th in fast break points allowed per game (13.7).
Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (8.3) while Denver ranks 18th (4.7).
The Warriors rank 11th in points off turnovers per game (17.5) while the Nuggets rank 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.4).
Denver averages 48.9 points in the paint per game, which ranks third in the NBA. Golden State ranks 19th in points allowed in the paint per game (45.3).
The Nuggets average 30.6 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the league. The Warriors rank 20th in three pointers allowed per game (29.4).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while Golden State ranks 10th (42.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.0, up from 1.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 122.2 points per game (6.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 116.0 points per game (10.1 above their season average).
