The Denver Nuggets (9-1) will try to extend their five-game winning streak against the Memphis Grizzlies (5-4) at FedExForum. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 7, 2018, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 206 points with Denver opening as a 3.5-point favorite.
Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies Free Prediction
The Nuggets will be hoping for similar success after covering the 1.5-point spread against the Boston Celtics in their last matchup, 115-107. The total points for the game (222) came in over the O/U total of 210.5. The Nuggets made 20 of their 28 free throws (71.4 percent) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 31.3 (above their season average of 27.5). With 48 points on 19-for-30 shooting, Jamal Murray was the game’s high scorer.
In the Grizzlies’ last game, they were beaten by the Golden State Warriors, 117-101. They were not able to cover as 14-point underdogs. The game’s total points (218) finished under the O/U total of 221.5. Golden State’s 23.5 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Memphis, who had a rate of 9.5. The Warriors’ mark was below their season average of 24.3, while the Grizzlies’ was below their season average of 18.0. Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr. had 15 points, six rebounds and five blocks in the contest.
The Nuggets won three out of four games against the Grizzlies last season. In the last matchup, Memphis won 101-94. Memphis’ 0.488 effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Denver, who had a mark of 0.420.
Denver comes into the contest with records of 9-1 straight up (SU) and 7-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as seven of their 10 contests have gone under the total.
Meanwhile, Memphis owns records of 5-4 SU and 5-4 ATS. Much like Denver, Grizzlies games also have a tendency to finish under the total (66.7 percent).
It might be a tough matchup for Memphis on the offensive glass. The Grizzlies rank 30th in offensive rebounding percentage (21.8 percent), while Denver ranks fifth in defensive rebounding percentage (77.8 percent) since the 2017-18 season.
Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
When holding opponents below 100 points, Memphis is 16-13 and Denver is 20-2.
The Grizzlies are 21-25 when they score over 100 points, while the Nuggets are 48-27.
Denver ranks sixth in rebounds per game (45.0) while Memphis ranks last (40.2).
The Nuggets rank fourth in second chance points per game (14.3) while the Grizzlies rank 26th (11.5).
Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.8) while Memphis ranks 24th (42.4).
The Grizzlies rank first in steals allowed per game (7.8) while the Nuggets rank 19th (8.0).
Memphis ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.0) while Denver ranks 13th (18.5).
The Nuggets rank eighth in assists per game (25.1) while the Grizzlies rank 19th in assists allowed per game (22.4).
Denver ranks 11th in fast break points per game (13.6) while Memphis ranks 19th in fast break points allowed per game (14.3).
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