The Miami Heat (37-33) challenge the Denver Nuggets (38-32) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 19, 2018.
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat ATS Prediction
The Nuggets are trying to rebound after their 101-94 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies in their last matchup. Memphis’ 0.488 effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Denver, who had a mark of 0.420. The Grizzlies’ mark was below their season average of 0.497, while the Nuggets’ was below their season average of 0.536. Nikola Jokic led Denver in scoring with 17 points on 5-for-15 shooting.
In the Heat’s last matchup, they won a close one over the Los Angeles Lakers, 92-91. Miami’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Los Angeles. The Heat had a rate of 9.9 (better than their season average of 12.9), while the Lakers posted a mark of 18.9 (above their season average of 13.4). Goran Dragic was the game’s leading scorer with 30 points on 10-for-18 shooting.
Miami could have trouble getting to the charity stripe in this contest. The Heat currently rank 26th in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.174, while Denver ranks fifth in FTA rate allowed (0.175). Additionally, the Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (25.8 percent), while the Heat rank fifth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.3 percent).
Denver holds records of 38-32 straight up (SU) and 31-36-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is exceedingly accurate when predicting totals of Nuggets games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 37-33 SU and 36-31-3 ATS. A little over half of Heat games have finished under the total.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Jokic (23.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, 7.4 assists and 1.6 steals) has been fantastic for the Nuggets while Kelly Olynyk (9.6 points, 8.0 rebounds and 4.2 assists) has made great contributions to the Heat.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Jokic recorded 19 points and 14 rebounds and the Nuggets defeated the Heat 95-94 but could not cover as 5.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 189 points, which was 27.5 points below the projected point total of 216.5 points. The Nuggets had a better free throw rate (0.175 vs. 0.091) and had a much better turnover percentage (15.7 vs. 21.9).
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Betting Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Denver is 12-19-2 ATS on the road with 17 unders and 16 overs.
At home, Miami is 13-18-2 ATS with 17 unders, 15 overs and 1 push.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Miami is 22-6 and Denver is 13-2.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Heat are 26-16 and the Nuggets are 32-22.
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.7) while Denver ranks 25th (24.4).
The Nuggets rank fourth in second chance points per game (13.8) while the Heat rank 25th (11.0).
Denver ranks ninth in fast break points per game (13.8) while Miami ranks 28th (8.5).
The Heat rank 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.9) while the Nuggets rank 26th (18.7).
Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.3) while Miami ranks 15th (43.9).
The Heat rank third in three pointers allowed per game (25.9) while the Nuggets rank 11th (28.7).
Denver ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.2) while Miami ranks 10th (42.4).
The Heat rank eighth in blocks per game (5.2) while the Nuggets rank 13th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
Miami averages 7.6 steals per game, which ranks 17th in the league. Denver ranks 20th in steals allowed per game (8.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.2, up from 1.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 109.4 points per game (6.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 106.0 points per game (3.5 above their season average).
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