The Denver Nuggets (10-6) will try to slow down the league’s top scoring team when they meet the Milwaukee Bucks (11-4) at Fiserv Forum. The game will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, November 19, 2018.
Milwaukee opened as a 5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 227 points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Prediction
The Nuggets are hoping for a better outcome after failing to cover as 1-point underdogs in their 125-115 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans in their last matchup. The combined points for the game (240) came in over the projected point total of 227.5. New Orleans was successful at getting to and converting from the free throw line. The Pelicans made 31 of their 34 free throws (91.2 percent), while the Nuggets were just 8-13 (61.5 percent). Nikola Jokic was Denver’s leading scorer with 25 points on 10-for-20 shooting.
The last time the Bucks were in action, they had no trouble getting past the Chicago Bulls, 123-104, covering as 14.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (227) finished just over the projected point total of 225.5. The Bucks held the Bulls to an offensive rebounding percentage of 8.3 (below their season average of 17.2). The Bulls had a free throw rate of 0.096 (below their season average of 0.189). With 23 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists, Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton had a solid game.
This game should be a showdown of contrasting paces. Milwaukee prefers an up-and-down style of play (seventh in possessions per game), while Denver is slower-paced (25th in possessions per game). Moreover, the Nuggets, who rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (27.4 percent), will face a tough test against the Bucks, who rank second in defensive rebounding percentage (81.2 percent).
Denver holds records of 10-6 straight up (SU) and 8-8 against the spread (ATS). Oddsmakers are known to set the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as nine of their 16 games have ended under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee owns records of 11-4 SU and 9-6 ATS. Unlike Denver, Bucks games tend to finish over the total (80.0 percent).
Eric Bledsoe has averaged 15 points,5.6 assists,1.6 steals over the last five games for Milwaukee.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Paul Millsap had 25 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists in the first matchup, in which the Nuggets lost 121-114, unable to cover as 3.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 235 points, which was 10.5 points above the projected point total of 224.5 points. Milwaukee was lights out from beyond the arc (17-34; 50.0 percent). Denver, meanwhile, did an excellent job of converting from the free throw line (14-20; 70.0 percent).
Nuggets vs. Bucks Betting Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Denver is 2-4 ATS on the road with 4 unders and 2 overs.
Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS at home with 7 overs and 1 under.
Milwaukee is 2-0 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Denver is 6-1.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Nuggets are 10-4 and the Bucks are 11-4.
Milwaukee ranks second in blocks per game (6.6) while Denver ranks 22nd in blocks allowed per game (6.3).
The Bucks rank second in three pointers attempted per game (40.3) while the Nuggets rank 20th (29.3).
Denver ranks fifth in second chance points per game (15.8) while Milwaukee ranks 20th (12.6).
The Bucks rank second in points allowed in the paint per game (40.3) while the Nuggets rank 14th (47.8).
Denver ranks sixth in assists per game (25.6) while Milwaukee ranks 17th in assists allowed per game (23.9).
The Bucks rank 1 in fast break points allowed per game (9.333333333333334) while the Nuggets rank 11 (12.9375).
Denver ranks 1 in rebounds allowed per game (40.625) while Milwaukee ranks 10 (43.6).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five games, Denver is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Milwaukee is 3-2 ATS with 5 overs over its last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.2, down from 6.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 123.4 points per game (2.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.6 points per game (4.9 above their season average).
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