NBA Odds: Nuggets (even)
The Denver Nuggets (20-39) are currently on a six-game losing streak and will compete against the Milwaukee Bucks (32-27) at the Pepsi Center. The game starts at 9:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Mar. 3 and will air on FSN-WI and Altitude.
The Nuggets lost to the Pelicans 99-92 on Sunday. Will Barton recorded 16 points and 10 rebounds, earning his first double-double of the year. The Bucks, meanwhile, are coming off an 82-75 loss to the Jazz on Saturday. Michael Carter-Williams stood out for Milwaukee, recording 16 points, five rebounds, and four steals.
The stingy Bucks defense should have a clear edge in terms of effective field goal percentage. They rank fifth in the league in forcing misses (opponents’ effective field goal percentage of 47.9%), while the brick-laying Nuggets offense is 27th with a mark of 47.0%.
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Bucks won the first game 89-81. Jusuf Nurkic had a double-double in the defeat with 11 points and 15 rebounds.
Oddsmakers have deemed this game an even matchup and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable. The Nuggets enter the game with records of 20-39 Straight Up (SU) and 21-35-3 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games they are 2-8 ATS. Denver is known to control the offensive glass, where they rack up an impressive 12.3 offensive rebounds per game. Expect Denver to have lots of opportunities at the line against the Bucks, who are one of the worst fouling teams in the league with an average of 22.2 fouls per game.
Across the court, Milwaukee has a SU record of 32-27 and an ATS record of 35-24. Milwaukee has been particularly bad ATS over its past ten matchups, going 2-8. Milwaukee’s defense as a whole has been firing on all cylinders so far, ranking third in the NBA with only 96.4 points allowed per game. Teams seem to consistently miss shots against the Bucks, who are the third-best team in the league in terms of opponent field goal percentage allowed at .431. Milwaukee makes opponents pay for turning the ball over, ranking third in points off turnovers with an average of 19.1 per game. The Bucks are in for a physical game against Denver. The Nuggets are not afraid to send opponents to the free throw line, averaging a league-high 22.8 fouls per game.
Milwaukee won the last meeting this season between these two teams, but the Nuggets still lead the head-to-head record, 8-2 SU, over the last 10 matchups. Additionally, the Nuggets lead the matchup ATS with a record of 7-3. Denver had the advantage in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) once over the last 10. Milwaukee has never had the edge in all categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – DEN, ATS Winner – DEN
Notes
On average, Milwaukee puts up 97.9 points per game (ranked 21st). Denver ranks 26th in points allowed per game with 104.2.
Denver ranks 28th in points allowed per home game (103.8 PPG), while Milwaukee ranks 17th in points per away game with 97.5.
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Bucks are 24-9 on the season. When the Nuggets score fewer than 100, they are a subpar 4-23.
When opponents have scored at least 100 points, Milwaukee has a subpar record of 8-18. When Denver has allowed 100 or more points, it has a split 16-16 record.
The Nuggets have a defensive rating of 104.8 (ranked 25th), while the Bucks rank 23rd for their offensive rating of 100.5.
The Milwaukee Bucks have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking sixth in the league with a FG% of 46.1%. When their opponents record a similar or higher FG%, the Denver Nuggets have an underachieving 1-24 record.
On average, Denver attempts 24.1 three pointers and Milwaukee attempts 18.6 per game. In games where the teams have 25 or more three point attempts, the Nuggets have a 5-23 record while the Bucks have a winning 4-1 record.
The Denver Nuggets, with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.56, rank 19th in the NBA. The Milwaukee Bucks have a lower A/TO (1.48), ranking 22nd.
Milwaukee ranks 26th in rebounds per game with 41.4, while Denver ranks eighth with 44.7.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank 24th in offensive rebounding, while the Denver Nuggets rank 15th in defensive rebounding.
Milwaukee is one of the top teams in forced turnovers, with opponents averaging a TOV% of 17.0% (ranked first). Denver has a poor record of 3-5 SU this season when its TOV% reaches 17.0% or greater.
