NBA Odds: Nuggets (even)
The New Orleans Pelicans visit the Pepsi Center to take on the Denver Nuggets. The game starts at 8:00 pm ET on Sunday, Mar. 1 and will air on FSN-NO and Altitude.
The Nuggets lost big to the Jazz 104-82 on Friday. Will Barton was the game’s high scorer, finishing with 22. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are coming off a 104-102 win over the Heat on Friday. Alexis Ajinca shot 9-for-10 and led in scoring with 24 points.
This game should be a matchup of contrasting styles. The Nuggets (ranked fifth in the league in possessions per game) prefer a fast-breaking style of play, while the Pelicans (27th) are slow-paced.
The Nuggets have won both matchups against the Pelicans this season, including a 93-85 victory in their last matchup. In the loss, Anthony Davis had a double-double with 24 points and 12 rebounds.
The odds are even for this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is currently unavailable. The Nuggets enter the game with records of 20-37-1 Straight Up (SU) and 21-33-3 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 2-7 ATS over their last 10 games. Denver has averaged 85.9 points per game over the last ten weeks, lower than its season average of 99.5.
On the other side, New Orleans has a SU record of 30-27-1 and an ATS record of 33-24. New Orleans has a record of 19-14 SU and 20-13 ATS against the West. During the last 10 games, they averaged PPG, below their 99.8 PPG season average. Don’t expect New Orleans to give away the ball much on offense, where its 12.4 turnovers per game ranks fourth in the league.
Denver won the last meeting this season between these two teams, moving its SU record against the Pelicans to 6-4 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. Additionally, the Nuggets lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, New Orleans held the edge in all three of these categories twice in the last 10 meetings. Denver did so once.
Predictions: SU Winner – NO, ATS Winner – NO
Notes
New Orleans ranks 15th in points per game with 99.8, while Denver ranks 26th in points allowed with an average of 104.3 given up.
Denver ranks 28th in points allowed per home game (103.9 PPG), while New Orleans ranks 21st in points per away game with 96.5.
In its last game, New Orleans won by a margin of two points. Denver is 4-3 in games decided by three points or less. New Orleans has a 7-2 record in close games.
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Pelicans are 20-11 on the season. When the Nuggets score fewer than 100, they are a subpar 4-22.
New Orleans is 11-16 when it gives up 100 or more points. The Nuggets have an even 16-16 record when they hit triple digits.
The Nuggets have a defensive rating of 104.8 (ranked 23rd), while the Pelicans rank seventh for their offensive rating of 105.6.
New Orleans has an average field goal percentage of 45.5%. Denver is an underachieving 3-24 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
On average, Denver attempts 23.9 three pointers and New Orleans attempts 19.2 per game. In games where the teams have 25 or more three point attempts, both have losing records. The Nuggets are 5-22 while the Pelicans sit at 3-5.
Denver has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.56 this season (ranked 19th). New Orleans ranks higher with an A/TO of 1.74 (ranked eighth).
The Denver Nuggets rebound 44.7 times per game and are ranked eighth. Ranked 12th, the New Orleans Pelicans rebound 43.8 times per game.
Denver is ranked 14th in defensive rebounds, while New Orleans ranks seventh in offensive rebounds.
New Orleans has forced an average turnover percentage of 12.6% this season. Denver has a losing 12-28 record when its TOV% is 12.6% or higher.
