The Oklahoma City Thunder (12-6) will try to extend their seven-game home winning streak in a matchup against the Denver Nuggets (12-7) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 24, 2018, and will air on Altitude 2 Sports.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 217 points with Oklahoma City set as a 5-point favorite.
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Prediction
The last time the Nuggets played, they blew out the Orlando Magic, 112-87, as 1-point underdogs. The total points for the game (199) came in well under the O/U total of 219.5. The Nuggets held the Magic to an offensive rebounding percentage of 9.3 (below their season average of 21.3) and had a turnover percentage of 9.9 (better than their season average of 12.3). Denver received a boost from Mason Plumlee, who put up 15 points and 11 rebounds.
The Thunder beat the Charlotte Hornets in their last contest, 109-104, despite being 1.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (213) were under the O/U total of 223.5. Oklahoma City’s 0.172 free throw rate was their largest advantage over Charlotte, who had a rate of 0.128. The Thunder’s mark was below their season average of 0.193, while the Hornets’ was below their season average of 0.198. Russell Westbrook was the game’s high scorer with 30 points on 10-for-18 shooting from the field.
After the Nuggets won three out of four meetings against the Thunder last season, these teams will battle for the first time this year. In the most recent contest, Denver won 126-125. Converting at the free throw line was one of Denver’s biggest advantages. They were 18-21 (85.7 percent), while the Thunder were just 15-27 (55.6 percent).
Denver comes into the game with records of 12-7 straight up (SU) and 9-9 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Nuggets are playing, as 61.1 percent of their games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City owns records of 12-6 SU and 11-6 ATS. A little over half of Thunder games have also finished under the projected point total.
Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out as two of the league’s top rebounding teams square off. The Thunder currently rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (28.3 percent), while Denver ranks fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.4 percent).
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Denver is 3-5 ATS with 6 unders and 2 overs.
At home, Oklahoma City is 5-3 ATS with 6 overs and 2 unders.
In contests where they hold opponents below 100 points, Oklahoma City is 3-0 and Denver is 7-1.
The Thunder are 10-3 when they score over 100 points, while the Nuggets are 12-4.
Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (26.4) while Oklahoma City ranks 25th (21.9).
The Thunder average 21.9 points off turnovers per game, which ranks first in the league. The Nuggets rank 19th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.6).
Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (10.7) while Denver ranks 16th in steals allowed per game (7.7).
The Thunder average 17.2 second chance points per game, which ranks second in the league. The Nuggets rank 13th in second chance points allowed per game (12.7).
Denver averages 53.5 points in the paint per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Oklahoma City ranks 15th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.7).
The Nuggets rank 1 in rebounds allowed per game (40.94736842105263) while the Thunder rank 9 (43.55555555555556).
Oklahoma City averages 5.333333333333333 blocks per game, which ranks 16 in the league. Denver ranks 22 in blocks allowed per game (5.7368421052631575).
The Nuggets average 13.31578947368421 fast break points per game, which ranks 14 in the league. The Thunder rank 20 in fast break points allowed per game (14.5).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five contests, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 11.2, up from 6.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 116.6 points per game (5.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 103.8 points per game (1.7 below their season average).
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