The Denver Nuggets (26-24) will try to end their five-game road losing streak in a matchup against the San Antonio Spurs (33-19) at AT&T Center. The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 30, 2018, and will air on Altitude 2 Sports.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 201 points with San Antonio set as a 6-point favorite.
Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs ATS Prediction
In the Nuggets’ last game, they were topped by the Boston Celtics, 111-110. Boston’s effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Denver. The Celtics had a rate of 0.566 (above their season average of 0.516), while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.505. Nikola Jokic led Denver in scoring with 24 points on 8-for-17 shooting.
The Spurs were victorious over the Sacramento Kings in their last matchup, 113-98. The Spurs had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 31.7 (above their season average of 23.0) and had a turnover percentage of 6.7 (better than their season average of 12.6). With 14 points, 10 rebounds and six assists, Dejounte Murray played well for San Antonio.
San Antonio could have difficulty getting to the free throw line in this battle. The Spurs currently rank 18th in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.187, while Denver ranks fourth in FTA rate allowed (0.169). Additionally, the Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (26.6 percent), while the Spurs rank fifth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.3 percent).
Denver holds records of 26-24 straight up (SU) and 21-25-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 30 of their 49 games have ended under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, San Antonio is 33-19 SU and 27-21-4 ATS. Much like Denver, games featuring the Spurs also have a tendency to finish under the projected point total (57.7 percent).
Jokic and Jamal Murray have played at a high level over the last five games for Denver. Jokic has averaged 15.4 points, 12.0 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game. Not to be outdone, Murray has put up 21.6 points and 3.8 assists a game during that span.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Nuggets lost 112-80, unable to cover as 7-point underdogs. Jokic led both teams with 23 points and also had nine rebounds and seven assists. The game finished with a total of 192 points, which was 16 points below the projected point total of 208 points. San Antonio made 14 of its 27 three pointers (51.9 percent). Denver, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (22.9 vs. 16.7).
Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs ATS Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Spurs, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Denver is 8-14-2 ATS with 14 unders and 10 overs.
San Antonio is 17-7-1 ATS at home with 13 overs and 12 unders.
Denver is 13-2 when they allow under 100 points, while San Antonio is 22-10.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Spurs are 26-3 and the Nuggets are 20-15.
San Antonio ranks 10th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.4) while Denver ranks 29th (19.3).
The Nuggets rank eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.2) while the Spurs rank 26th (24.4).
Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (48.2) while San Antonio ranks 23rd (41.7).
The Spurs rank third in blocks per game (5.4) while the Nuggets rank 16th (4.7).
Denver ranks fifth in assists per game (23.8) while San Antonio ranks 17th (22.3).
The Nuggets rank third in second chance points per game (14.3) while the Spurs rank 14th (12.7).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (40.9) while San Antonio ranks 11th (42.3).
The Spurs rank 18th in steals allowed per game (7.8) while the Nuggets rank 25th (8.4).
Denver ranks eighth in fast break points per game (13.5) while San Antonio ranks 11th in fast break points allowed per game (10.9).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 1-3-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
San Antonio is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.6, up from 0.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Spurs have scored an average of 99.8 points per game (1.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 95.2 points per game (2.2 below their season average).
