The Washington Wizards (40-31) clash with the Denver Nuggets (39-33) at Capital One Arena. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, March 23, 2018, and will air on NBATV.
Washington is a 1.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 220 points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Washington Wizards Betting Prediction
The Nuggets come in on a high note after thoroughly outplaying the Chicago Bulls in their last game, 135-102. The Nuggets had a ridiculous effective field goal percentage of 0.735 (above their season average of 0.535), while the Bulls had a free throw rate of 0.124 (below their season average of 0.167). Denver received a boost from Paul Millsap, who was the game’s leading scorer with 22 points on 8-for-9 shooting.
In the Wizards’ last matchup, they lost to the San Antonio Spurs, 98-90. San Antonio’s 31.6 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Washington, who had a rate of 23.1. The Spurs’ mark was above their season average of 23.4. With 21 points and six rebounds, Kelly Oubre Jr. had a good game for Washington.
The offensive glass should be a huge edge for Denver in this battle. The Nuggets currently rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (25.8 percent), while Washington ranks 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.6 percent).
Denver heads into the game with records of 39-33 straight up (SU) and 32-37-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Nuggets games, with 37 overs compared to 35 unders.
Meanwhile, Washington owns records of 40-31 SU and 32-37-2 ATS. Contrary to Denver, just over half of Wizards games have finished under the O/U total.
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have played well over the last five games for Denver. Jokic has averaged 21.8 points, 12.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.2 blocks per game. Not to be outdone, Murray has put up 20.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.2 steals a game during that span.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Nuggets lost 109-104, unable to cover as 5-point favorites. Jokic led both teams with 29 points and also recorded nine rebounds and five assists. The game finished with a total of 213 points, which was 11.5 points below the projected point total of 224.5 points. The Wizards’ turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Nuggets. Washington had a rate of 13.5, while Denver posted a mark of 20.3.
Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Denver is 13-20-2 ATS with 18 overs and 17 unders.
At home, Washington is 12-21-2 ATS with 18 overs, 15 unders and 2 pushes.
When allowing below 100 points, Washington is 18-4 and Denver is 13-2.
The Wizards are 37-17 when they score above 100 points, while the Nuggets are 33-23.
Denver ranks second in second chance points allowed per game (10.6) while Washington ranks 26th (13.3).
The Wizards average 24.9 assists per game, which ranks fifth in the league. The Nuggets rank 26th in assists allowed per game (24.7).
Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.3) while Washington ranks 22nd (42.6).
The Wizards rank 10th in points off turnovers per game (17.2) while the Nuggets rank 27th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.7).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.2) while Washington ranks 13th (42.5).
The Wizards average 8.0 steals per game, which ranks 10th in the league. The Nuggets rank 20th in steals allowed per game (8.0).
Denver averages 30.8 three pointers per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. Washington ranks 14th in three pointers allowed per game (29.1).
The Wizards rank 16th in fast break points per game (11.5) while the Nuggets rank 20th in fast break points allowed per game (12.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Washington is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.2, up from 1.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Wizards have scored an average of 107.4 points per game (0.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.8 points per game (7.8 above their season average).
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