The Washington Redskins didn’t have a particularly glaring need at running back entering the draft, but they may have found a new starter anyway. At least that’s the word after they landed LSU’s Derrius Guice with the 59th pick.
Welcome to D.C., @DhaSickest!#HTTR #SkinsDraft #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/O8htB5Mkuz
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) April 28, 2018
Guice was arguably the second-best running back in this class but was the seventh off the board due to alleged character concerns. Washington may have gotten a steal, but players typically don’t take falls like that for no reason.
Reasons to Get Excited
Filling in for Fournette
Former LSU star Leonard Fournette’s final season was injury-plagued, meaning there was ample opportunity for his backup, Guice, to show what he could do. The drop-off wasn’t noticeable.
Guice’s 7.6 yards per carry were second among running backs with at least 150 carries in 2016. Fournette never averaged more than 6.5 yards per carry in any of his three seasons with the Tigers. Seeing as Fournette did pretty well after Jacksonville drafted him fourth overall in 2017, Guice could follow in his footsteps.
Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley
The Redskins have had a revolving door of running backs since the end of the Alfred Morris era. Morris struggled in 2015 and none of his successors, including Matt Jones, Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine, have managed to do much with their opportunities.
Though Washington may be hesitant to completely give up on Perine just one year after selecting him in the fourth round, he’s no lock to retain his level of usage after finishing 43rd among qualified running backs with 3.4 yards per carry. Kelley was even worse with 3.1 yards per carry. Guice is in position to be Washington’s early-down back by Week 1.
Talent
Guice is a powerful runner who could be dominant in the red zone. He had plenty of Marshawn Lynch-like runs in college, which probably led to some putting him on the same level as Fournette.
The wait is over.
The Redskins select RB Derrius Guice with the 59th pick pic.twitter.com/6nBg0YCent
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 28, 2018
Based on talent alone, he was a clear first-rounder. Don’t be surprised if he’s Fournette’s equal once again.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Whatever Made Him Fall
Something made Guice fall so far. This has largely been attributed to “character concerns” though that could mean just about anything. Reporters spoke in ominous tones about “troubling news” and an “altercation” in Philadelphia that everyone involved denies. It’s all very vague and could be nothing.
That said, where there’s smoke, there’s fire. It was a little weird when Seattle and New England passed up Guice for Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel, respectively. But when three other teams also opted for different backs, that gave the rumors some credibility. There’s no telling what actually made him fall, but fantasy owners need to prepare for the reality that the “character concerns” could lead to benchings or suspensions.
Chris Thompson
Guice likely wasn’t going to get much third down work as a rookie regardless of where he ended up, seeing as he only caught 29 passes in 34 games at LSU. But that’s especially true in Washington where Chris Thompson has been one of the NFL’s best receiving backs over the last couple of years. As such, Guice will see fewer snaps and his value takes a hit in PPR leagues.
Age and Inconsistency
Guice will be 21 at the start of the season. Running backs that young have not had much success over the last 10 years. Both Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley had excellent age-21 seasons, but that’s about it. Some others, like Le’Veon Bell and Jonathan Stewart, were usable in fantasy, but they weren’t in the RB1 conversation like Fournette was last year. Guice may need some time to adjust to the NFL.
He also had his fair share of disappearing acts in college, including against tougher opponents like Alabama, Auburn and Florida. In those three games (two of which were wins) he rushed 56 times for 192 yards (3.7 yards per carry). They were the only ranked teams LSU faced during the regular season.
Conclusion
Starting Guice as an RB2 in Week 1 wouldn’t be the worst move. There are red flags for sure, but if everything goes right he could be the next dominant rookie running back. That upside could make him an expensive RB2, but the potential is tantalizing.
