The Miami Heat (19-17) square off against the Detroit Pistons (20-15) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 3, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Detroit.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 195.5 points with Miami set as a 3-point favorite.
Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat ATS Prediction
The Pistons will be hoping for similar success after defeating the San Antonio Spurs in their last contest, 93-79. The Pistons held the Spurs to an effective field goal percentage of 0.399 (below their season average of 0.515) and had a turnover percentage of 11.1 (better than their season average of 12.6). Andre Drummond led the way for Detroit, finishing with 14 points, 21 rebounds and six assists.
In the Heat’s last game, they defeated the Orlando Magic, 117-111. The Heat had an absurdly low turnover percentage of 7.7 (better than their season average of 14.1), while the Magic had a free throw rate of 0.136 (below their season average of 0.179). Tyler Johnson was Miami’s high scorer with 31 points on 12-for-18 shooting.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams square off. Miami ranks 27th in possessions per game (96.7) and Detroit is 22nd (97.4).
Detroit heads into the game with records of 20-15 straight up (SU) and 20-13-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Pistons are involved, as 21 of their 35 games have gone under the total.
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 19-17 SU and 15-19-2 ATS. Games involving the Heat also have a tendency to finish under the O/U total (61.1 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Ish Smith (11.8 points and 4.4 assists) has been stellar for the Pistons while Josh Richardson (18.8 points and 4.0 assists) has contributed greatly to the Heat.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Tobias Harris scored a game-high 25 points and the Pistons defeated the Heat 112-103, covering as 2-point favorites. He also put up seven rebounds. The game finished with a total of 215 points, which was 15 points above the projected point total of 200 points. The Pistons had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.6 vs. 14.0) and had a better free throw rate (0.161 vs. 0.133).
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Pistons, ATS Winner – Pistons, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Detroit is 11-6-1 ATS on the road with 12 unders, 5 overs and 1 push.
Miami is 4-11-2 ATS at home with 10 unders, 6 overs and 1 push.
In games where they allow less than 100 points, Detroit is 11-4 and Miami is 13-3.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Pistons are 17-4 and the Heat are 14-6.
Detroit ranks 10th in second chance points per game (13.3) while Miami ranks 29th (9.4).
The Heat rank 13th in blocks per game (4.8) while the Pistons rank last (3.3).
Miami ranks fourth in assists allowed per game (20.7) while Detroit ranks 21st (23.9).
The Pistons rank fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while the Heat rank 17th (16.8).
Detroit ranks 16th in fast break points per game (10.5) while Miami ranks 28th (7.4).
The Heat rank first in three pointers allowed per game (25.3) while the Pistons rank 10th (27.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Detroit is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Pistons’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.2, up from 1.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 103.6 points per game (3.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 104.2 points per game (2.1 above their season average).
