The Detroit Pistons (6-6) travel to Scotiabank Arena to meet the league leading Toronto Raptors (12-2). The game will air on Fox Sports – Detroit at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 14, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 224 points with Toronto set as a 10-point favorite.
Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors ATS Prediction
The Pistons were unable to cover as 2.5-point favorites in their 113-103 loss to the Charlotte Hornets in their last matchup. The combined points for the game (216) were under the projected point total of 221. Charlotte’s 0.571 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Detroit, who had a rate of 0.423. The Hornets’ mark was above their season average of 0.531, while the Pistons’ was below their season average of 0.488. Detroit’s Andre Drummond played well, contributing 23 points and 22 rebounds.
The last time the Raptors played, they were beaten by the New Orleans Pelicans, 126-110, despite being 9.5-point favorites. The game’s combined points (236) finished over the O/U total of 228.5. New Orleans’ offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Toronto. The Pelicans had a rate of 31.8 (above their season average of 25.6), while the Raptors posted a mark of 24.5. With 19 points and 14 rebounds, Toronto’s Serge Ibaka had a solid game.
After the Raptors won all four matchups against the Pistons last season, these teams will clash for the first time this year. In the most recent game, Toronto won 108-98. The Raptors’ offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over the Pistons. Toronto had a rate of 21.6, while Detroit posted a mark of 9.1.
Detroit comes into the game with records of 6-6 straight up (SU) and 5-7 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is extremely accurate when setting the total of Pistons games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Meanwhile, Toronto owns records of 12-2 SU and 8-6 ATS. Of the Raptors’ 14 games, 10 have finished over the total.
Ibaka and Pascal Siakam have played at a high level over the last five games for Toronto. Ibaka has averaged 18.2 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Not to be outdone, Siakam has put up 17.2 points and 6.2 rebounds a game during that span.
Toronto should have the advantage on the offensive side of the ball. The Raptors currently rank third in effective field goal percentage (0.552), while Detroit ranks 14th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.519).
Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Raptors, ATS Winner – Pistons, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Detroit is 4-2 ATS on the road with 4 overs and 2 unders.
Toronto is 4-4 ATS at home with 7 overs and 1 under.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Detroit and Toronto are both 1-0.
The Raptors are 12-2 when they reach 100 points, while the Pistons are 6-4.
Detroit ranks second in second chance points allowed per game (11.1) while Toronto ranks 22nd (14.9).
The Raptors rank third in fast break points per game (20.0) while the Pistons rank 23rd (11.2).
Toronto ranks seventh in assists per game (25.0) while Detroit ranks 26th (20.8).
The Raptors rank 12th in blocks per game (5.6) while the Pistons rank 25th (3.9).
Toronto ranks sixth in points in the paint per game (52.4) while Detroit ranks 17th in points allowed in the paint per game (49.2).
The Pistons average 49.2 rebounds per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Raptors rank 13th in rebounds allowed per game (44.8).
Toronto ranks sixth in steals per game (8.6) while Detroit ranks 13th in steals allowed per game (7.3).
The Pistons rank fifth in three pointers attempted per game (35.0) while the Raptors rank ninth in three pointers allowed per game (30.0).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five outings, Detroit is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Toronto is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Pistons’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.6, down from 1.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Raptors have scored an average of 119.4 points per game (2.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.2 points per game (2.8 above their season average).
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